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The 20-DMA test: Does Nifty 50 breaking the crucial level spell trouble for the bulls?
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The 20-DMA test: Does Nifty 50 breaking the crucial level spell trouble for the bulls?
Dec 19, 2022 2:34 AM

The Nifty 50 index decisively broke the 20-day moving average on Friday. You may have felt like giving the index another day with Thursday's move, but it effortlessly broke those levels on Friday and the rallies were sold into.

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Anecdotally what happens is that the break of the 20-day moving average leads to a sharp fall. On the other hand, the Nifty Bank index, which registered record highs in the earlier part of the week, has just managed to close at the 20-day moving average. Therefore, you may still want to give the benefit of the doubt to the banking index as it is the leadership index.

Let us now take a look at the last few instances of the breakdown of the 20-day moving average on the Nifty 50. Most of the data is confined to this year:

Previous BreakMove After That
January 21-7.80%
April 18-7.80%
June 13-6.80%
August 29-2.90%
December 15?

What may give some hope to the bulls is that the last 20-DMA breach in August was a temporary one where the Nifty 50 declined only 3 percent and bounced back soon after.

However, if we take a look at the broader market, most of the indices are at or below the 20-day moving average.

IndexDifference From 20-DMA
Nifty MidcapAt 20-DMA
Nifty MetalAt 20-DMA
Nifty FMCG0.50%
Nifty Pharma-1.00%
Nifty Auto-1.50%
Nifty IT-3.50%
Nifty Cap Goods2%
Nifty PSU Bank Index5%

The Capital Goods index is one among the two indices that have done well and was even at lifetime highs on Thursday, led by names like Larsen & Toubro. The PSU Bank index is the other outperformer.

There are some key Nifty 50 constituents that are also trading below the 20-day moving average, led mainly by IT majors like HCL Technologies, and Infosys.

StockDifference From 20-DMA
HCL Tech-5%
Infosys-4%
Kotak Mahindra Bank-4%

There are stocks which are showing strength as well, trading above their 20-day moving average.

StockDifference From 20-DMA
ONGC5%
IndusInd Bank4%
L&T4%

Here are some stocks that are in a make-or-break zone, closing right at the 20-day moving average or have slipped below it.

StockDifference From 20-DMA
SBIAt 20-DMA
HDFC BankAt 20-DMA
Reliance Industries-2%
ITC-2%
ICICI Bank-2%

Stocks like Reliance, ITC and ICICI Bank have led the recent rally but have now slipped below their 20-DMA. If these stocks correct further, we may be in for a sharper correction, at least that's what the anecdotal data suggests.

Let's see whether it is any different this time around.

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