12:22 PM EDT, 09/25/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange, which was down 160 points in early trade, has recovered most of its losses and is now down 42 points.

Info tech is the biggest decliner, shedding 2.4%. Constellation Software ( CNSWF ) is 5% lower, to near $3,935 after it announced that Mark Leonard has resigned as President of Constellation for health reasons, effective immediately. Current chief operating officer Mark Miller has been appointed President by the board.

CIBC's Katherine Judge noted Canada's payroll survey of employment showed a 21.6K increase in jobs for July, but that follows a string of weak readings and still leaves the level of employment a little below January's level. Judge noted hiring in July was concentrated in six of 20 sectors, led by health/social assistance (+15K), and finance/insurance (+8.7K), which offset declines in five sectors including manufacturing and construction. Job vacancies fell by 4.2%, leaving them 15% below year-ago levels, with the ratio of unemployment-to-job vacancies rising to the highest level seen since 2017 (ex. pandemic years).

Elevated labour market slack was apparent in the deceleration in the fixed-weight wages measure to 2.7% y/y, the lowest reading since early 2024. Given that this employment print follows a string of weak readings this year, it leaves employment up by only 0.3% y/y, in comparison to 1.4% for the more timely LFS measure (ex. self employment), which is likely being flattered by lags in population growth in that series, she added. "Today's report still suggests a weak labour market, with hiring contained to a few industries and labour demand weakening."

Canada's Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) Thursday revised down its economic outlook, citing increased trade uncertainty and the impact of tariffs. Real gross domestic product is now projected to grow 1.2% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, compared with March forecasts of 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively, the PBO said. While growth is expected to rebound to 1.8% in 2027, structurally weaker trade conditions are projected to leave the level of real GDP about 0.5% lower by 2030. Nominal GDP, the broadest measure of the government's tax base, is projected to be $12.9 billion lower annually, on average, over 2025 to 2029, primarily due to the lasting impact of tariffs and less favorable trading conditions with the United States.

PBO projects the budgetary deficit to increase "sharply" from $51.7 billion (1.7% of GDP) in 2024-25 to $68.5 billion (2.2% of GDP) in 2025-26, reflecting weaker economic growth and additional measures impacting both revenues and expenses. Assuming no new measures are introduced and existing temporary measures sunset as scheduled, the budgetary deficit is projected to decline slightly but remain close to $60 billion through the medium term as growth in revenues only slightly outpaces growth in expenses, it added.

Due to persistent budgetary deficits of over 1% of GDP, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase from 41.7% in 2024-25, rising above 43% over the medium term. Compared with PBO's March outlook, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is 4.5 percentage points higher in 2029-30 and is no longer projected to be on a declining path over the medium term.

Meanwhile, declining interest rates and a softening housing market could benefit first-time homebuyers, yet most people are choosing to delay their purchase plans for another year amid economic uncertainty, according to a new survey. Royal LePage released the results of a survey on Thursday stating first-time homebuyers are moving at their own pace.