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Trade Setup for April 17: Infosys results threaten Nifty 50's 1,000 point rally from March 20 lows
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Trade Setup for April 17: Infosys results threaten Nifty 50's 1,000 point rally from March 20 lows
Apr 16, 2023 7:32 PM

The Nifty 50 index ended Thursday's trading session at 17,828. That is a surge of exactly 1,000 points from the March 20 swing low of 16,828.

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Within 15 trading sessions, the index has not only managed to reverse from the lows, but also crossed key resistance levels on the upside, therby opening the doors for a surge to levels of 18,000 and higher.

The market has now gained for nine days in a row - the longest winning streak for the Nifty 50 since October 2020.

However, this rally is now under threat, considering the shocking results delivered by index heavyweight Infosys after market closing on Thursday. US-listed shares of the stock fell 10 percent on Thursday night and another 1.5 percent on Friday, when Indian markets were shut on account of a holiday.

Infosys is the fourth biggest stock on the Nifty 50 index in terms of weightage, with 6.7 percent. The market will also react to results from HDFC Bank, which commands a 9.3 percent weightage on the index.

Earnings will be one of the key triggers that will give the market a direction going forward, according to Shibani Sircar Kurian of Kotak Mutual Fund. She said that consensus expectations are for double-digit earnings growth for Nifty 50 companies excluding energy and metals, adding that banks, industrials and autos may see strong earnings growth this quarter.

"We think that if you want to stay in equities, rotate into Asian equities, and at the margin, investors should consider increasing allocation to bonds given that we are probably close to the end of rate hiking cycle for most of the major central banks, RBI included," Abhilash Narayan of Standard Chartered Bank told CNBC-TV18.

What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street?

Ruchit Jain of 5paisa.com expects a time-wise correction or some retracement in the coming week as the charts have entered overbought territory. However, he advises using these dips as a buying opportunity. He sees immediate support for the index at 17,650, followed by the 20-DMA level of 17,450. On the upside, immediate resistance is at 17,925 - 17,970, followed by a 61.8 percent retracement level of 18,110.

The view on the Nifty 50 remains bullish with a buy-on-dips strategy to be followed, suggests Rohan Patil of SAMCO Securities. Immediate support is at 17,550, followed by upside resistance at 18,000.

Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One has observed a rounding bottom formation n the Nifty 50's daily chart. He does not rule out a pause or correction as the recent rally has been devoid of any hurdles. The 20-Day Simple Moving Average of around 17,500 is likely to act as a crucial support, while 18,000 will be a key resistance, he said.

Here are key things to know about the market ahead of the trading session on April 17:

SGX Nifty

On Monday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty 50 index — declined 58 points or 0.32 percent to 17,812, thereby pointing to a slightly negative opening for the market. One must take into account that the SGX was trading on Friday whereas Indian equities were not.

Global Markets

US markets ended lower on Friday as retail sales turned out to be weaker than expected, but managed to post weekly gains.

The Dow Jones fell nearly 150 points, but notched its fourth straight weekly advance with gains of 1.2 percent. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.2 and 0.3 percent respectively, but had their fourth straight weekly gain in five.

What to expect on Dalal Street

Although higher, the Nifty 50 is still close to its March 6 swing high of 17,799. The overall chart patterns are positive, according to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. The next upside target for the index is around 18,200, while immediate support is 17,700, he said.

Rupak De of LKP Securities believes that the index is likely to remain in positive territory as long as it remains above 17,700. On the upside, he expects 18,000 to be a crucial resistance.

De also observed the Nifty Bank charts, which surpassed the Budget-day high of 42,016 with heavy volumes. He expects the Nifty Bank to move to levels of 42,440 - 42,680 on the upside, while downside support is at 41,800.

Key Levels To Watch

For this Thursday's weekly options expiry, the 18,000 strike call of the Nifty 50 added 26.8 lakh shares in Open Interest, followed by the 18,100 call, which added 20 lakh shares.

The 17,800 put has added 31.4 lakh shares in Open Interest, while the 17,850 put, and the 17,600 put have added 12.2 lakh and 10.5 lakh shares respectively in Open Interest.

Nifty 50's put-call ratio is now at 1.18 from 1.27 on Thursday. Delta Corp and Balrampur Chini continue to remain in the F&O ban.

FII/DII activity

FPIs have been buyers in cash for 10 sessions in a row now. VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial Services said that FPIs have been buying as well as covering their shorts. Net short positions of FIIs have come down to 61 percent on April 13, compared to 91 percent on March 20.

"FPIs are buyers in capital goods, construction and FMCG and sellers in IT and oil and gas. IT is likely to witness more selling in the coming days since the growth prospects for the segment appears weak an indicated from the Q4 results of TCS and Infosys," he said.

Long Build-Up (Increase In Price and Open Interest)

StockCurrent OICMPPrice ChangeOI Change
AU Small Finance Bank1,45,17,000673.3017.20%13.18%
Deepak Nitrite16,98,2501,866.900.69%10.69%
ONGC5,40,11,650159.600.82%9.31%
IndiaMart3,26,7005,412.001.54%9.01%
Escorts Kubota15,02,8751,951.051.81%8.67%

Short Build-Up (Decrease In Price and Increase In Open Interest)

StockCurrent OICMPPrice ChangeOI Change
LTIMindtree15,91,5004,631.40-4.49%8.59%
Infosys3,52,67,2001,384.95-3.29%8.33%
Coforge6,26,8504,004.75-1.47%7.71%
Petronet LNG1,45,65,000228.55-1.72%6.89%
Persistent Systems11,56,9254,385.80-3.72%6.73%

Short Covering (Increase In Price and Decrease In Open Interest)

StockCurrent OICMPPrice ChangeOI Change
Chambal Fertilisers41,74,500289.8951.38%-7.57%
Whirlpool7,17,8501,337.002.00%-6.98%
Apollo Hospitals14,78,3754,418.802.10%-4.81%
Voltas51,90,600824.550.51%-4.14%
ACC49,46,7501,768.600.38%-4.08%

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