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Trade Setup for April 24: Earnings reaction to index heavyweights will determine Nifty 50's direction
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Trade Setup for April 24: Earnings reaction to index heavyweights will determine Nifty 50's direction
Apr 23, 2023 8:45 PM

The Nifty 50 has been in consolidation mode ever since the start of April. However, that may end this morning as the index may see moves depending on the market reaction to two heavyweight stocks.

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Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank, having a combined weightage of nearly 20 percent on the Nifty 50 will react to their better-than-expected results reported on Friday and Saturday respectively.

Last Friday was another 100-point range session for the Nifty 50 with the only difference being that it briefly broke below Monday's low of 17,574, to make a new low of 17,553. It recovered soon after though to end little changed and above the 17,600 level.

A thing to note here is that institutional selling has resumed after a period of lull. Foreign investors have sold over Rs 1,000 crore each during both Thursday and Friday's trading sessions.

Today's session will also see IndusInd Bank among the Nifty 50 constituents report results, while midcap IT major Persistent Systems will also be reporting numbers. Persistent's numbers will particularly be in focus after the strong results from Cyient last week.

"I am beginning to recommend Persistent again. But I think the valuations if you look at potential earnings downgrades, which might come in the next couple of quarters don't look to be as attractive as you want them to be to enter. Cyient is a bit different than the other tech companies, but the mainstream tech, the largecap tech, they will see some earnings downgrades incrementally also. So this is not quite the trough in my opinion," GV Giri of IIFL Institutional Equities told CNBC-TV18.

What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street?

Ruchit Jain of 5paisa.com expects the short-term uptrend to resume in case the Nifty 50 breaks above the 17,700 mark on the upside. He advises traders to keep a stock-specific approach for now with the index being in the 17,500 - 17,700 range. "It is advisable to trade in the direction of the breakout once we get a move beyond these levels," he said. There are specific opportunities within the FMCG space, according to Jain for trading purposes.

Traders should utilise the dips to add long positions in the index, according to Osho Krishnan of Angel One. He sees 17,500 as a crucial support level, followed by upside resistance of 17,700 - 17,800. He further said that the recent consolidation post a 1,000-point rally is considered healthy for the Nifty 50.

The Nifty Bank index underperformed the benchmark on Friday but may lead the index higher today in case ICICI Bank reacts positively to its results. The index did manage to hold its key support level of 42,000 and a break on either 42,000 or 42,500 will determine the next direction for the index, according to Kunal Shah of LKP Securities. A break below 42,000 can take the index towards 41,500.

Here are key things to know about the market ahead of the trading session on April 24:

SGX Nifty

On Monday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty 50 index — was flat at 17,660, thereby pointing to a subdued opening for the market.

Global Markets

Benchmark indices in the US ended marginally higher on Friday but that was not enough for the indices to prevent a weekly loss.

For the week, the Nasdaq fell 0.4 percent, while the Dow Jones ended 0.2 percent lower, snapping a four-week losing streak. The S&P 500 ended 0.1 percent lower.

Big tech starts reporting results this week, with Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta, all reporting quarterly earnings this week.

What to expect on Dalal Street

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities though has a slightly differing opinion on the Nifty 50. He believes that the index sustaining above the previous upside broken trendline at 17,600 but not showing any sustainable upside bounce is not a good sign. He also noticed the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern but not a classic one on the Nifty 50's weekly chart. He sees the short-term trend as weak and any break below 17,600 - 17,550 to open sharp declines for the market.

The Nifty 50 has formed a bearish candle but prices are firmly holding above the 50-week exponential moving average, according to Rohan Patil of SAMCO Securities. In case the index closes below 17,500 supports, it may see downside towards 17,200 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 17,850. A break above those levels can see the Nifty 50 move towards 18,000 or higher.

A fall below the 200-day moving average, currently seen at 17,605, may trigger a sell-off in the Nifty 50, according to Rupak De of LKP Securities. "Below 17600, the Nifty may slip towards 17400. On the higher end, a resistance is placed at 17700, above which the index may move towards 18000," he said.

Key Levels To Track

For this week's weekly and monthly F&O expiry, the 17,700 strike call of the Nifty 50 index saw addition of 60.27 lakh shares in Open Interest, followed by the 17,600 call, which added 21.58 lakh shares.

Open Interest addition was also seen in the 17,800 call (11.1 lakh) and 17,900 call (29.5 lakh) shares.

On the downside, the 17,600 put added 24.5 lakh shares in Open Interest, followed by the 17,550 put, which added 16 lakh shares.

Nifty 50's put-call ratio is now at 0.93 from 1 on Thursday. No stocks are currently in the F&O ban.

FII/DII activity

Short Covering (Increase In Price and Decrease In Open Interest)

StockCurrent OICMPPrice ChangeOI Change
HCLTech94,12,2001,051.901.41%-19.55%
PI Industries18,03,5003,199.001.22%-18.70%
Alkem Labs5,60,6003,416.401.40%-13.30%
Apollo Hospitals12,04,1254,362.950.24%-12.43%
Coromandel International11,18,600943.001.24%-12.34%

Long Unwinding (Decrease In Price and Open Interest)

StockCurrent OICMPPrice ChangeOI Change
Siemens13,64,0003,256.10-0.81%-10.19%
Bharti Airtel3,14,09,850767.90-0.80%-10.08%
Dalmia Bharat18,14,0001,924.10-3.30%-9.95%
ACC37,81,7501,716.65-1.31%-9.94%
REC4,69,60,000121.95-0.81%-9.47%

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