The current market is the perfect test of the optimist Versus the pessimist. The optimist would say after the weekly options expiry session on Thursday that the Nifty 50 continues to defend the 19,300 mark on the downside and Thursday's low was higher than that of Wednesday.

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On the other hand, the pessimist would ask for how long? The Nifty 50 closed below the 19,400 mark for the first time in two weeks. Thursday's close means that the Nifty 50 is now lower for the week and is likely to post its fourth straight weekly loss. The last time that happened, was back in April-May, 2022.

"The Nifty 50 has formed a bearish inside candle on the daily charts, indicating that this non-directional activity is likely to continue," said Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities. He further said that 19,320 is the sacrosanct support for the index, below which it can slip to 19,250 - 19,200. He anticipates a fresh upmove only above levels of 19,480.

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said that the short term trend of the Nifty 50 remains choppy with a weak bias. He is expecting a downside breakout of the 19,300 - 19,250 levels in the near term, which can take the index down to the 19,100 - 19,000 mark. Any upside bounce can see resistance at 19,600, Shetti said.

The Nifty Bank though, showed much more resilient compared to the Nifty 50. However, the index did end with a negative bias, declining for the sixth straight session. The last time it fell for six days in a row was between September 21-29, 2022. It is also on the verge of declining for the fourth straight week. The last time that happened was back in February 2022.

Kunal Shah of LKP Securities said that the downside support of 43,600 is crucial for the Nifty Bank in case one wants to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy. "A potential resistance awaits at 44,200 and a break above that could trigger a short-covering move towards the 45,000 mark," he added.

ITC was among the top losers on the Nifty 50 index on Thursday. The stock has been seeing a steady decline since it made its all-time high of Rs 490 last month. Its now down 10 percent from its record high. The stock is now set for its fourth straight weekly drop. The last instance of the stock falling four weeks in a row goes back to April 2021.

“I am constructive on ITC. It should be part of one’s core portfolio. As far as hotel business is concerned, the last year’s base was very high. So, one should look at the hotel numbers, they have been subdued, but overall one should be positive on ITC," Ajay Bodke, Market Expert said.

What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

Nifty 50's August futures added 2.7 percent or 2.92 lakh shares in Open Interest. They are now trading at a premium of 28.65 points compared to 19.55 points earlier. On the other hand, the Nifty Bank's August futures added 6.7 percent or 1.32 lakh shares in Open Interest. Nifty 50's Put-Call Ratio is now at 1.06 from 1.11 earlier.

Punjab National Bank has entered the F&O ban list from today's session, while Balrampur Chini and Manappuram Finance have exited the list. Chambal Fertilisers, Delta Corp, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Granules India, India Cements, GNFC, Hindustan Copper and SAIL continue to remain in the ban list.

Nifty 50 on the Call side for August 24 expiry:

For next Thursday's expiry, the Nifty 50 call strikes between 19,400 and 19,700 have seen Open Interest addition, with the former seeing the maximum Open Interest addition.

Nifty 50 on the Put side for August 24 expiry:

On the Put side, there has been Open Interest addition in various out of the money Nifty 50 strikes ranging from the 18,000 Put to the 18,800 Put. Even the 17,900 strike has seen Open Interest addition for next Thursday's expiry.

Here are the stocks that added fresh longs on Thursday, which means an increase in price and Open Interest:

Here are the stocks which added fresh shorts on Thursday, meaning a decrease in price but increase in Open Interest:

These stocks saw unwinding of long positions on Thursday, meaning a decrease in both price and Open Interest:

Here are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Friday's trading session:

Shriram Finance, Trent, TVS Motors, PNB, Zydus: To be included in the Nifty Next 50 index. Adjustment to take place on September 28, 2023.

Page Industries, HDFC AMC, ACC, Indus Towers, Nykaa: To be excluded from the Nifty Next 50 index. Adjustment to take place on September 28, 2023.

Reliance Industries: Jio Financial to be delisted from the FTSE indices, marked at zero value. MSCI will uphold Jio Financial, while Nifty 50 and Sensex will delete the stock three days after listing.

Zydus Life: Gets USFDA approval for Doxepin tablets. The tablets are used in the treatment of depression and anxiety.

Sula Vineyards: The extended weekend of August 12-14 saw highest ever revenue, visitor numbers, tastings. Revenue over the three-day period touched Rs 2.08 crore, 40 percent higher than the previous three-day record of Rs 1.47 crore.

South Indian Bank: Reserve Bank of India approves the appointment of PR Seshadri as MD & CEO from October 1, 2023.

Tata Steel: Calls shareholders meet for merger with TRF on September 18.

NTPC: Signs Business Transfer Agreement with NTPC Mining to hive off its coal mining business. The coal mining business consists of six coal mines.

Jain Irrigation: Board approves short and medium-term fund raising. To raise funds worth nearly Rs 76.12 crore via promoter allotment. Alpha Alternatives Structures will subscribe to share warrants worth Rs 123.43 crore.

What Do the Global Cues Indicate?

Asian equities have opened lower on Friday as well as investors are assessing Japan's July inflation data, where core inflation fell to 3.1 percent from 3.3 percent in June, while headline inflation remained at 3.3 percent.

Both the Nikkei 225 and the Topix are trading 0.6 percent lower at the start of trade. South Korea's Kospi is down 0.7 percent, while the Kosdaq is trading with a 0.6 percent cut.

The street is also looking at the latest blows to China's real estate sector where Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US.

Hang Seng futures are also pointing towards a weak start to the trading day.

Benchmark indices on Wall Street fell for the third day in a row after investors digested the latest round of earnings and economic data.

The Dow Jones fell nearly 300 points to close below the 50-Day Moving Average for the first time since June 1. The S&P 500 fell 0.8 percent, while the Nasdaq also fell over a percent.

10-year treasury yields in the US reached their highest since October 2022 as they continue to rise post the recent Fed minutes.

Both foreign and domestic investors were net sellers in the cash market on Friday.

Rupak De of LKP Securities advises traders to adopt a sell-on-rallies approach on the Nifty 50 as long as the index does not trade above the 19,525 mark. On the downside, he sees support at levels of 19,250.

Range for the Nifty 50 is seen between 19,480 and 19,300, said Mehul Kothari of Anand Rathi. He continues to maintain that a fresh round of selling will emerge only once the Nifty 50 breaks below the 19,250 mark. On the upside, resistance is seen between 19,500 - 19,600.

First Published:Aug 17, 2023 9:41 PM IST