It was meant to be a week where the Nifty 50 finally scaled its all-time high, especially when peers like Nifty Bank and the Sensex had already done so earlier. But things went awry pretty quickly for the index as not only did it fall one point short of a record, but has already corrected substantially from those levels. It now lies at a very critical pivot point.

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The Nifty 50 has managed to stay above the 18,630 mark for the last nine trading sessions. That was the intraday low it made on June 13. Currently, the index is only 35 points adrift of those levels. From the highs of 18,886.6 on Thursday, the index has already corrected 220 points in just a session-and-a-half.

Gaurav Bissa of InCred Equities said that although the index has closed well below the 18,700 mark, it has managed to stay above its 21-Day Exponential Moving Average on the daily charts, which it has not broken since April. He expects 18,630 to be an immediate support for the index, which may lead to a small bounce till 18,800. However, further correction will be triggered if the index falls below the 18,630 mark.

The Nifty 50 has formed a double top formation and also a bearish candle on the weekly charts, which is broadly negative, according to Amol Athawale of Kotak Securities. He expects 18,650 to act as a key support for the Nifty 50 and that above these levels, the index can retest record highs. However, a fall below that mark can take the index lower towards levels of 18,500 - 18,450.

The Nifty Bank index fell 300 points last week and has constantly found resistance at the mark of 44,000. Only once in the last 12 trading sessions has the index managed to close above the mark of 44,000. Friday's close was also the lowest for the Nifty Bank since June 15. The index is stuck in the 43,000 - 44,500 range for nearly two months now.

Kunal Shah of LKP Securities calls 44,000 a key resistance for the Nifty Bank and 43,500 on the downside a key support. A move on either side would be needed for further directional cues. However, he called the sentiment bearish as long as the index remains below the 44,000 level.

Kotak Securities' Athawale said that the 50-Day Simple Moving Average of 43,500 will act as a key support to the index and may take it towards 44,000 or 44,300. However, a fall below 43,500 can trigger further correction towards levels of 43,300 or even 43,000 on the downside.

The Nifty Metal index is witnessing a bout of profit booking as the China reopening and stimulus theme is not playing out as anticipated. The index fell over 2.5 percent on Friday, which was its biggest single-day drop in three months. For the week, it was down 3 percent, which is also the biggest weekly drop since March this year. The index posted a weekly loss for the first time after four straight weekly advances.

"We generally have a negative view on metals, but sure, they could be trading rallies and if you have that mindset, where you want to trade the rallies, then you should understand these businesses better, and the stock price moves better and then perhaps you can make some money on it. But I haven't been successful on that count so I generally always avoid them," Dipan Mehta of Elixir Equities said.

What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

Nifty 50's June futures shed 7.2 percent in Open Interest on Friday. Rollovers at the start of the final four days of the June F&O expiry stand at 23 percent. The futures are trading at a premium of 40.4 points compared to 58.8 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank's June futures added 4.3 percent in Open Interest. Rollovers for the banking index are currently at 27 percent. Nifty 50's put-call ratio is currently at 0.93 from 1.11 on Thursday.

BHEL is out of the F&O Ban list, while Hindustan Aeronautics has entered the list. RBL Bank, Hindustan Copper, L&T Finance Holdings and PNB continue to remain in the ban list.

Nifty 50 on the Call side for June 29 expiry:

Highest Open Interest addition on the call side for this Thursday's expiry is between 18,700 and 18,800.

Nifty 50 on the Put side for June 29 expiry

For the put strikes, Open Interest addition is seen between the 18,500 and the 18,700 strikes.

Lets take a look at stocks that saw short covering during Friday's trading session, which means an increase in price but decrease in Open Interest:

Lets see the stocks which saw unwinding of long positions on Friday, which means a decrease in both price and Open Interest:

Here are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Monday's session:

ICICI Bank: Board meeting on June 29 to consider delisting proposal for shares of ICICI Securities.

HDFC Life: Receives Rs 940 crore GST demand notice for July 2017 to March 2022. Has deposited Rs 250 crore against GST demand under protest.

TCS: Clarifies on the reports of recruitment process scam, says recruitment activities in the company are not managed by RMG as alleged and that no key managerial personnel of the company is found to be involved

Asian Paints: Acquires additional 11 percent stake in Obgenix Software for Rs 54 crore, thereby taking its overall stake to 60 percent from 49 percent earlier.

RVNL: Emerges lowest bidder for a project worth Rs 395 crore from MMRCL

Godrej Properties: Acquired approximately 15 acres of land in Gurugram through an outright purchase for the development of premium residential apartments.

IPCA Labs: USFDA issues form 483 with eight observations for formuations manufacturing facility at SEZ Pithampur in Madhya Pradesh. The inspection was carried out between June 15-23, 2023.

Yes Bank: Board approves raising funds of up to Rs 2,500 crore through debt issue.

AU Small Finance Bank: To consider fund raising via equity / debt on June 29

What Are Global Cues Indicating?

Wall Street ended the week with losses as a broader market rally appears to be running out of steam. The Dow Jones ended over 200 points lower on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 0.8 percent, while the Nasdaq declined by 1 percent.

The S&P 500 snapped a five-week winning run, while for the Nasdaq, that streak stretched eight weeks. The Dow also ended a three-week positive run.

Both foreign and domestic investors were sellers in the cash market on Friday. While FIIs sold Rs 344.81 crore, DIIs sold Rs 684.1 crore.

Nifty 50 on the weekly chart has formed a long bear candle from the highs, indicating the formation of a 'dark cloud cover' pattern at the swing highs, according to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. The short-term trend, according to him is on the downside. Further decisive weakness can open intense selling pressure for the coming week, he said. He sees further downside support for the Nifty 50 at levels of 18,370.

Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One believes that a break below levels of 18,650 - 18,600 will take the index further lower towards 18,500 and 18,450 levels. On the upside, he sees the immediate bearish gap at 18,750 as the resistance, followed by the record high of 18,887. However, he added that on the longer timeframe charts, the structure still remains positive and any future price or time-wise correction should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

First Published:Jun 25, 2023 11:44 PM IST