The inevitable finally happened. The Nifty 50 scaled a record high on the final day of the June F&O series. Not only did it scale the record high, it also crossed the mark of 19,000 on an intraday basis, ending just a shade below the same.

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For the June series, the Nifty 50 gained 3.5 percent or 650 points, marking the third straight positive series for the index. The last instance of the Nifty 50 index having three positive series in a row was back in August-October, 2021, during which the index gained over 2,000 points. This time around, the Nifty 50 has gained over 1,900 points across April-June.

For the week, the index is up 200 points, and is likely to end higher for the fifth week in the last six. Historical evidence suggests that the Nifty 50 index has gained in eight out of the last ten July months, with average gains of 2.9 percent, according to Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Research.

Positional support for the Nifty 50 index has shifted higher to 18,700, said Ruchit Jain of 5paisa.com. Immediate support will be near the gap area of 18,830. On the upside, 19,035 will act as an immediate barrier for the index, followed by 19,125, which are the retracement levels on the short-term charts.

Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities believes 18,900 will now be a key trend decider for the Nifty 50 index, above which, the index can move towards levels of 19,100 - 19,150. He advises exercising caution below the 18,900 mark as traders may consider exiting long positions.

The Nifty 50 hitting a record high also spurred the Nifty Bank to move towards record levels on Wednesday, as the index crossed the 44,500 mark on an intraday basis, although it couldn't sustain above the same. The index has also gained for three consecutive F&O series after August-October 2021. Between April-June series, the Nifty Bank has gained nearly 4,500 points.

Previous resistance of 44,000 has now become a strong support level for the Nifty Bank, said Kunal Shah of LKP Securities. 44,500 continues to remain a strong resistance on the upside as call writing is visible on those levels. Crossing 44,500 will take the index higher towards 45,000. He advises traders to continue maintaining a buy approach, using support levels as a stop loss.

Ashwin Ramani of SAMCO Securities agrees with Kunal Shah's assessment that 44,500 remains a strong resistance level for the index and a move above that will trigger a fresh rally towards higher levels in the coming sessions.

Capital goods stocks continue to outperform with one of them being ABB India. The stock gained for the third day in a row on Wednesday and ended at a 52-week high. Shares have now gained 65 percent for the first six months of the year.

“We are comfortable owning ABB. The kind of numbers that they have posted, one of the best numbers within the larger capital goods space. The kind of orderbook that they have at this point of time, revenue visibility looks very good. In terms of execution, I think it should be relatively better for this financial year and that means EBITDA margins should be relatively better in FY23 compared to FY22. However it has run up a little bit too much for comfort, so for fresh entry points one should wait for declines," Mayuresh Joshi of William O'Neil said.

What Are F&O Cues Indicating?

Nifty 50 ended the June series with rollovers of 76 percent compared to the three-month average of 70 percent. The Nifty Bank had rollovers of 79 percent at the end of the series. Nifty 50's Put-Call Ratio is now at 1.4 from 1.21 earlier.

Both L&T Finance and Manappuram are out of the F&O ban list at the start of a new series. No stocks are in the ban list.

Nifty 50 on Call Side For July 6 Expiry:

For the first weekly expiry of the July series, call strikes between 18,900 and 19,200 have seen Open Interest addition. The 19,000 strike saw the maximum addition in Open Interest.

Nifty 50 on Put Side For July 6 Expiry:

Nifty 50's put strikes between 18,800 and 19,000 saw Open Interest Addition for next week's expiry, with the 18,900 put seeing the maximum addition.

Lets take a look at the stocks that added fresh long positions at the start of the July series, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:

Lets take a look at the stocks that added fresh short positions at the start of the July series, meaning a decrease in price but increase in Open Interest:

Here are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Friday's session:

MCX: Extends support services rendered by 63 Moons for another two quarters from July 1, at a consideration of Rs 125 crore per quarter. The amount is higher than the Rs 87 crore it paid during the March quarter.

ICICI Securities: ICICI Bank Approves draft scheme of arrangement for delisting of ICICI Securities through a share swap. Shareholders of ICICI Securities will receive 67 shares of ICICI Bank for every 100 shares held.

TD Power: Sources tell CNBC-TV18 that promoters and shareholders plan to sell 24.2 percent stake via block deals worth Rs 800 crore. Offer floor price is said to be Rs 214 per share, which is a 4 percent discount to Wednesday's close.

CreditAccess Grameen: Promoter Creditaccess India BV to sell up to 5.8 percent stake worth Rs 1,107 Crore In via block deal. Base price said to be Rs 1,230 per share. Promoter held 73.68 percent stake in the company as of the March quarter.

Adani Green Energy: Goldman Sachs Trust II, Goldman Sachs GQG Partners International Opportunities Fund bought 1.19 crore shares at Rs 920.05 apiece.

BPCL: Board approves raising Rs 18,000 crore through issue of equity shares.

What do the global cues indicate?

Most US benchmarks on Wall Street ended higher overnight led by big banking names, which gained after passing the US Federal Reserve's annual stress test and a GDP print that was revised higher.

The Dow Jones gained over 200 points on Thursday, the S&P 500 added 0.4 percent, while the Nasdaq ended flat. The Nasdaq is poised for its best first half in four decades, having risen 30 percent year-to-date, while the S&P 500 is set for its best month since January.

The Singapore (SGX) Nifty futures, an early indicator of how trading would begin in India is currently little changed at 19,172. One must note that Indian markets were shut on Thursday and will resume trading today.

Foreign investors were buyers in Wednesday's trading session in the cash market, while domestic investors chose to book some profits. One must remember that the figures are skewed due to the block deals in Adani Group stocks and in stocks like Bikaji Foods.

19,050 - 19,150 are the next levels to watch out for on the Nifty 50 index before it makes its move towards the next cluster of 19,250 - 19,500, said Sameet Chavan of Angel One. On the downside, he sees support at 18,850 - 18,800. He advises traders to focus on beaten down pockets as they may offer better trading opportunities now.

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities sees more upside for the Nifty 50 index towards levels of 19,100 - 19,200 as it crossed an important resistance of 18,900 on Wednesday. Immediate support for the index is seen at 18,830.

First Published:Jun 29, 2023 10:56 PM IST