Indian equity benchmarks snapped a two-day winning run to finish yet another volatile session with cuts of more than one percent each. Geopolitical tensions running through global markets kept the Dalal Street bulls nervous, though Russia's "ready for talks" remark helped headline indices recover about one third of the day's losses.

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What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street now?

The Nifty50 has formed a bullish harami candlestick pattern on the daily chart, supporting a pullback rally, according to Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities.

However, he said the short-term texture appears to be weak, which suggests that a fresh rally will be possible only after the 50-scrip index crosses 16,680.

Beyond that level, the Nifty could rally up to 16,750-16,800 levels, but as long as it is below 16,650, there are high chances of a slump to 16,550-16,500 levels, he added.

Volatility here to stay

Ajit Mishra, VP-Research at Religare Broking, is of the view that volatility is here to stay in the market, and the weekly F&O expiry will add to the choppiness. Weekly derivative contracts are due to expire at the end of the March 3 session.

"Participants have no option but to align their positions according to the trend and take a hedged approach," he said.

Here are key things to know about the market before the March 3 session:

SGX Nifty

At 7:36 am on Thursday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures -- an early indicator of the Nifty index -- were up 35.5 points or 0.2 percent at 16,652.5, suggesting a positive start ahead on Dalal Street.

Global markets

Equities in other Asian markets moved higher following reassuring comments from the Fed that helped Wall Street indices surge. However, caution prevailed among investors as they tracked newsflow on the Russia-Ukraine war. MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan was up half a percent at the last count.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.7 percent, China's Shanghai Composite 0.3 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0.5 percent. South Korea's KOSPI was up 1.3 percent and Singapore's Straits Times 0.7 percent.

S&P 500 futures were down 0.2 percent. On Wednesday, the three main Wall Street indices -- the S&P, the Dow and the Nasdaq Composite -- finished the day 1.6-1.9 percent higher.

What to expect on Dalal Street

The 50-strong index remains in a short-term consolidation phase at 16,200-16,800 levels, with its bounce fizzled out near the upper end of the range, pointed out Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas. The 16,800 level, in his view, is now acting as crucial resistance.

The Nifty has formed a popgun pattern on the hourly chart and once again looks poised for a bounceback towards 16,800, said Ratnaparkhi, who sees near-term support at 16,500-16,480 followed by a major cushion at 16,200.

Levels to watch out for

Mohit Nigam, Head-PMS at Hem Securities has identified the following levels:

FII/DII activity

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold Indian equities worth Rs 4,338.9 crore on Wednesday, according to provisional exchange data. However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) made net purchases to the tune of Rs 3,061.7 crore.

Call/put open interest

Exchange data shows the maximum call open interest is accumulated at the strike price of 17,500, with 2.4 lakh contracts, followed by 17,000, with 1.6 lakh contracts. On the other hand, the maximum put open interest is at 15,500, with almost 89,600 contracts, and then 16,000, with around 86,200 contracts.

This suggests the Nifty faces a major hurdle at 17,000, and a meaningful cushion is placed only at 16,000.

Long build-up

Here are five stocks that saw an increase in open interest as well as price, suggesting build-up of long positions:

Long unwinding

(Decrease in open interest as well as price)

Short-covering

(Increase in price and decrease in open interest)

Short build-up

(Increase in open interest and decrease in price)

52-week highs

A total of seven stocks in the BSE 500 universe managed to scale 52-week highs: Vedanta, Hindalco, Adani Transmission, Fine Organic, Ratnamani Metals, Hitachi Energy and GNFC.

52-week lows

Five stocks in the broadest basket on the bourse hit 52-week lows: HDFC, HDFC Life, Dr Reddy's, Kansai Nerolac and City Union Bank.

Fear gauge

The India VIX -- also known as the fear index -- jumped 2.3 percent to settle at 29.2 on Wednesday, having surged as much as 7.9 percent during the session to inch closer to last week's 20-month high of 34.

First Published:Mar 2, 2022 7:00 PM IST