Global cues continue to dominate where the Indian markets move. The week gone by turned out to be one of consolidation, which ended on a negative note after two straight days of losses.

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The Nifty 50 index fell over 200 points between Thursday and Friday, dragging the index not only below the mark of 17,000, but also below another crucial support of 16,950.

This week is crucial in many ways as it will mark the end of the March F&O series. This is also a truncated week, as the market will be closed on account of a holiday on Thurday.

So far, the Nifty 50 has lost over 550 points in the March series, and if the index fails to close above 17,511 before Wednesday, it will mark the fourth consecutive F&O series of losses. The drop of 550 points so far in March is also the highest for the index in an F&O series since September last year, during which it lost over 700 points.

Both Sensex & the Nifty 50 marked their third straight weekly loss, ending with losses of a percent each. 34 out of the 50 index constituents posted losses, while most sectoral indices also declined.

The Nifty 50 is just over 100 points away from its March 20 swing low of 16,828.

Rajesh Kothari of AlfAccurate Advisors highlighted Capital Goods, Consumer Discretionary and Banking and Finance as the three themes that he is bullish on. "If you look at last six- seven years, the central capex has been almost double digit and now we expect private sector also capex to start, probably buy quarter two or quarter three so capex story is one story which we continue to like," he told CNBC-TV18.

What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street?

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities believes the short-term trend of the Nifty 50 continues to remain weak as immediate resistances are unchallenged, while support levels are breaking. He expects the Nifty 50 to slide towards 16,800 - 16,700 in the coming week, while 17,050 on the upside can be an immediate resistance.

The Nifty 50 has the potential to drop towards levels of 16,750 on the downside as the momentum indicator RSI remains in a bearish crossover, said Rupak De of LKP Securities. The closing below a crucial support of 16,950 did not help matters either. On the upside, he sees resistance for the index at 17,200.

Rohan Patil of SAMCO Securities sees a strong hurdle for the Nifty 50 at its 21-day Exponential Moving Average of 17,280. His overall stance on the Nifty 50 is bearish and he expects the index to fall towards 16,450 - 16,400, in case it breaks below 16,800 and 16,750 support levels. "Only a sustained close above the 17,300-17,350 zone is likely to trigger bullish momentum towards 17,500–17,550," he said.

Here are key things to know about the market ahead of the trading session on March 24:

SGX Nifty

On Monday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty 50 index — gained 98 points or 0.58 percent to 17,017.5, thereby pointing to a positive opening for the market.

Global Markets

Benchmark indices in the Asia-Pacific have begun the new trading week on a mixed note as banking troubles in the US and Europe continue to keep sentiments in check.

The Nikkei 225 and the Topix have opened with modest gains of around 0.2 percent, while the South Korean benchmarks Kospi and Kosdaq are down by a similar quantum. Hong Kong futures are also pointing to a negative start.

Markets on Wall Street ended with small gains on Friday, enabling a weekly advance. The Dow Jones gained 1.2 percent for the week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4 percent and 1.7 percent respectively.

What to expect on Dalal Street

There is no respite for the bulls as the immediate bounces are getting sold into, while prices continue to form a lower-top, lower-bottom formation on the charts, according to Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One. As the index is close to its support level of 16,850 - 16,800, Bhosale advises avoiding aggressive bets for a while.

"The hike in the base rate by the Fed and Bank of England, and the persistence of inflation, and the therefore of the hard money policy, has been viewed as negative for the markets in the immediate term. These factors may continue to influence market movements in the coming week too," Joseph Thomas of Emkay Wealth Management was quoted as saying.

"The volatility in the market is expected to continue in the short term as the global banking system is yet to fully recover from the crisis, especially in Europe," Vinod Nair of Geojit Financial Services said.

Key Levels To Watch

For Wednesday's weekly and monthly options expiry, the 17,000 strike call of the Nifty 50 index added 52.9 lakh shares in Open Interest, while the 17,100 call added 28.9 lakh shares in Open Interest.

On the downside, the 16,800 put added 19.6 lakh shares in Open Interest, while the 16,700 put added 16.3 lakh shares in Open Interest. 15.4 lakh shares were also added in the 16,900 put option.

Nifty 50's put-call ratio is now at 0.78 from 0.86 on Thursday.

Biocon has exited the F&O ban, while Hindustan Aeronautics and Indiabulls Housing Finance continue to remain in the ban period.

FII/DII activity

Short Covering (Increase In Price and Decrease In Open Interest)

Long Unwinding (Decrease In Price and Open Interest)

First Published:Mar 27, 2023 5:46 AM IST