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Trade setup for March 30: Can Nifty50 test 17,500 soon? From market cues to what technical charts signal
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Trade setup for March 30: Can Nifty50 test 17,500 soon? From market cues to what technical charts signal
Mar 29, 2022 8:56 AM

Indian equity benchmarks extended gains to a second straight day on Tuesday boosted by financial and IT shares. Globally, the mood remained upbeat as investors cheered falling crude oil prices amid optimism about the first face-to-face peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in over two weeks.

Share Market Live

NSE

What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street now?

The Nifty50 is now within two points of its 100-day moving average (DMA), having taken out five other levels in a bullish sign.

Period (No. of days)Simple moving averageSignal
517,233.7Bullish
1017,152.7Bullish
2016,799.5Bullish
5017,153.7Bullish
10017,326.9Bearish
20017,052.1Bullish

The Nifty50 has formed a small positive candle on the daily chart with a minor lower shadow, reflecting a follow-through upmove amid rangebound movement, according to Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. He believes that a positive sequence of higher tops and bottoms is intact on the daily timeframe.

"The short-term trend continues to be positive. A sustainable move above 17,500 levels is likely to push the Nifty towards the next upside trajectory of around 17,800-18,000 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 17,250," he said.

Bulls in charge

The 50-scrip index is set to extend the 61.8 percent retracement of its January-March decline at 17,330, said Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas. In his view, the overall market structure shows the Nifty50 is witnessing short-term consolidation.

It recently took support near the lower end of the range, at 17,000, and appears to be attempting to leap towards the upper end of 17,500, he said.

Here are key things to know about the market before the March 30 session:

SGX Nifty

At 7:20 am on Wednesday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures -- an early indicator of the Nifty index -- were up 180 points or one percent at 17,619.5, suggesting a gap-up opening ahead on Dalal Street.

Global markets

Equities in other Asian markets surged barring Japan tracking a strong session on Wall Street overnight, as crude oil declined by $2 a barrel and investors celebrated signs of progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan up one percent in early hours. Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 1.2 percent. China's Shanghai Composite was up 0.6 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 1.2 percent, South Korea's KOSPI 0.3 percent and Singapore's Straits Times 0.2 percent.

S&P 500 futures edged 0.1 percent lower. On Tuesday, Wall Street rose, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones extending gains to a fourth straight session. Investors grew optimistic on progress being made in Russia-Ukraine talks. The S&P 500 rose 1.2 percent, the Dow one percent and the Nasdaq Composite 1.8 percent.

What to expect on Dalal Street

One can expect the Nifty50 to stay within the 17,000-17,500 range for the next few sessions, according to Ratnaparkhi of Sharekhan.

He sees stock-specific action continuing in the short term.

Rahul Sharma, Co-Founder of Equity99 Advisory, expects banking, metal, real estate and media stocks to be in focus, and suggests continuing with a buy-on-dips strategy at major levels.

Levels to watch out for

Sharma identified the following levels:

IndexSupportResistance
Nifty5017,300, 17,255, 17,15017,440, 17,530, 17,600
Nifty Bank35,780, 35,600, 35,40036,080, 36,230, 36,400

FII/DII activity

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought Indian shares worth Rs 35.5 crore on Tuesday, and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) made net purchases of Rs 1,713.3 crore, according to provisional exchange data.

Call/put open interest

Exchange data shows that the maximum call open interest is accumulated at the strike price of 18,000, with 1.9 lakh contracts, and the next at 17,500, with 1.4 lakh contracts. The maximum put open interest is at 16,500, with 1.4 lakh contracts, and 17,000, with 1.3 lakh contracts.

This suggests major resistance awaits the index at 17,500 before the 18,000 hurdle, and support comes in at 17,000 followed by a cushion 500 points below.

Long build-up

Here are five stocks that saw an increase in open interest as well as price:

SymbolCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
SIEMENS11,26,4002,309.701.64%37.70%
GODREJCP60,98,000695.050.87%32.38%
MINDTREE20,06,4004,2590.45%31.90%
LT96,49,0751,753.450.35%21.86%
MPHASIS9,80,7003,382.301.40%20.45%

Long unwinding

SymbolCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
L&TFH2,89,49,45682.7-2.13%-41.74%
IOC2,43,10,000118.95-1.04%-22.19%
RBLBANK2,88,02,800128.85-1.72%-21.96%
ESCORTS14,09,1001,627-0.43%-21.62%
NTPC3,90,10,800134.4-0.59%-18.66%

(Decrease in open interest as well as price)

Short-covering

SymbolCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
ATUL71,62510,449.851.91%-32.57%
AARTIIND16,88,950924.551.42%-26.57%
HDFCAMC14,85,8002,098.901%-23.06%
ASHOKLEY2,71,44,000114.650.17%-18.90%
IBULHSGFIN2,73,11,000160.64.32%-18.15%

(Increase in price and decrease in open interest)

Short build-up

SymbolCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
PEL24,71,1502,194.25-0.30%16.65%
APOLLOHOSP16,10,8754,626.95-0.63%16.12%
TECHM84,28,8001,527.55-0.08%14.41%
UBL11,38,2001,407.75-0.98%12.67%
RELIANCE2,63,50,2502,623.55-0.05%10.36%

52-week highs

A total of 21 stocks in the BSE 500 universe hit 52-week highs:

ADANIENTHINDALCONH
ADANIPOWERINDHOTELRATNAMANI
ADANITRANSINTELLECTRCF
CUMMINSINDJINDALSTELRHIM
DELTACORPLEMONTREESRF
GNFCLINDEINDIASUVENPHAR
GSFCMAHLIFEVIPIND

52-week lows

The following stocks hit 52-week lows:

3MINDIAGILLETTE
AARTIDRUGSGODREJAGRO
ASTRAZENGODREJIND
BAJAJCONGPPL
BBTCIDFCFIRSTB
CASTROLINDNIACL
CEATLTDPGHL
DBLTHYROCARE
EMAMILTDVAKRANGEE
ENDURANCEWOCKPHARMA

Fear gauge

The India VIX -- also known as the fear index -- eased 5.8 percent to settle at 21.3 on Tuesday. Last month, Russia's move to invade Ukraine had pushed the gauge to a 20-month high of almost 34.

Disclaimer: Network18, the parent company of CNBCTV18.com, is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

(Edited by : Abhishek Jha)

First Published:Mar 29, 2022 5:56 PM IST

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