The Nifty 50 index needs to close above 17,303 in today's session to prevent a fourth successive monthly decline. In case that does not happen, it will be the first instance since June-September 2001, where the index has had four consecutive months of negative returns.

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Since the December 1 top of 18,888, the Nifty 50 index has corrected over 2,000 points, if we consider the current swing low of 16,828 on March 20.

A recovery in Reliance Industries from the day's low, inflows due to index rebalancing and positive global cues meant that the Nifty 50 not only closed higher on Wednesday, but also near the mark of 17,100.

However, the gains on Wednesday were not enough to prevent another negative F&O series for the index. The Nifty fell 431 points in the March series, registering its fourth straight negative F&O series. The last time the index registered four back-to-back negative series' was between November 2021 - February 2022.

The 400-point drop in the March series also meant that the Nifty 50 had its worst F&O series since September last year, during which the index had declined over 700 points.

18 constituents of the Nifty 50 index reported gains while 32 stocks ended lower for the series.

Vinay Jaising of JM Financial believes that it is time to begin nibbling into the equity markets. "I think it's time to start nibbling into the equity markets for sure. Especially second half of the year when you see the last year rate hikes behind us and probably rates are coming down, you want to be well entrenched into the Indian part of the market," he told CNBC-TV18.

What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street?

Chandan Taparia of Motilal Oswal said that the Nifty 50 is in the process to form an inside bar or a Harami pattern on the weekly chart, which indicates the bears losing grip and a small short-covering bounce is likely. He said that the index should see a follow-up move above 17,071, in case of which the bounce can extend up to 17,200 - 17,350 in the April series.

The market is currently at important support levels and a sudden spurt in prices cannot be ruled out, according to Rohan Patil of SAMCO Securities. He also said that rollover data for the April F&O series hints at short covering. Patil sees a major hurdle for the Nifty 50 at 17,350 - 17,450, above which there would be a bullish breakout in the index. 16,800 - 16,750 remain crucial support levels.

The Nifty Bank index remained flat during the March series and continued to trade in the 39,000 - 40,000 range. The index needs to sustain above 40,000 to confirm a breakout, Kunal Shah of LKP Securities said. He advises a buy-on-dips approach as long as the index remains above 39,500.

Here are key things to know about the market ahead of the trading session on March 31:

SGX Nifty

On Friday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty 50 index — was flat at 17,253, thereby pointing to a subdued opening for the market. However, one must take into account that Thursday was a holiday for Indian equities.

Global Markets

Markets in Asia have opened higher on the final trading day of the week. Japan's Nikkei 225 and the Topix have both opened with gains of a percent each. Inflation in Japan continues to decline from the 4.3 percent peak in December.

South Korea's Kospi has opened higher but the Kosdaq is trading with losses. Hang Seng futures are also pointing to a positive open.

US benchmarks continued with their positive momentum on Thursday, registering yet another day of gains. The Dow Jones gained nearly 150 points, while the S&P 500 rose 0.6 percent. The Nasdaq also ended with gains of 0.73 percent.

The indices are also on track for positive weekly returns. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 are up nearly two percent for the week, on course for their best performance in a week since January. The Nasdaq has weekly gains of 1.6 percent.

What to expect on Dalal Street

The Nifty 50 index has formed a small positive candle pattern at important lower supports of 16,800, observed Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. He wants the index to see sustained upside above 17,200 to confirm halting of the lower top, lower bottom formations. The next upper level to be watched is 17,250, he said.

Rupak De of LKP Securities said that a decisive breakout above 17,250 may take the Nifty 50 index up to 17,500 - 17,600, whereas 16,900 on the downside will continue to act as a crucial support. Until then, he expects the ongoing sideways trend to continue on the index. De cites 17,571 as a key level for the Nifty 50, which is its 50-day Moving Average.

The Nifty Bank is giving early signs of making a short-term bottom, Motilal Oswal's Taparia said. The index, according to him, is shifting its base to a higher level of 39,250 from 38,600 earlier. He wants the index to hold levels of 39,500 for an upmove towards 40,500.

Key Levels To Track

For the weekly options expiry on April 6, the 17,800 strike call of the Nifty 50 added 60.6 lakh shares in Open Interest, followed by the 17,000 call, which added 33.9 lakh shares.

On the downside, the 17,000 put added 52.75 lakh shares in Open Interest, while the 16,000 put added 21.77 lakh shares in Open Interest.

Nifty 50's put-call ratio is back above the mark of 1 at 1.05, from 0.80 on Tuesday. No stocks are currently in the F&O ban period.

FII/DII activity

Long Build-Up (Increase In Price and Open Interest)

Short Build-Up (Decrease In Price and Increase In Open Interest)

First Published:Mar 31, 2023 5:48 AM IST