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Trade setup for Oct 13: Nifty back above 17,000 but may need to cross a key hurdle for a sustained upmove
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Trade setup for Oct 13: Nifty back above 17,000 but may need to cross a key hurdle for a sustained upmove
Oct 12, 2022 9:04 AM

Share Market Live

NSE

Indian equity benchmarks made a comeback on Wednesday, after three back-to-back sessions of selling that wiped off Rs 6 lakh crore of investors' wealth, though caution persisted on Dalal Street amid weakness across global markets. Fears that steep rate hikes may hamper growth continued to fuel nervousness globally.

What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street?

The Nifty50 has formed a reasonable positive candle on the daily chart beside the previous day's long bear candle, according to Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

This suggests the comeback of the bulls from support at the 50-scrip index's 200-day exponential moving average around 16,900 in a positive sign, he said.

Nifty Bank fails to take out a key hurdle

The Nifty Bank remains in a buy mode as long as it holds the support level of 38,500, said Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities.

"Momentum indicator RSI has formed a double bottom pattern, confirming internal strength of the breakout," he said.

Here are key things to know about the market ahead of the October 13 session:

SGX Nifty

On Thursday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty index — fell as much as 66 points or 0.4 percent to 17,039 ahead of the opening bell on Dalal Street.

Global markets

Equities in other Asian markets continued to reel under pressure, following a weak session overnight on Wall Street, after minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting showed policymakers agreed on the need to maintain a more restrictive stance. MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.3 percent at the last count.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 0.6 percent, China's Shanghai Composite 0.3 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0.7 percent.

S&P 500 futures eked out a gain of 0.1 percent. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent, and the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq Composite 0.1 percent each. Investors awaited a key consumer inflation reading from the world's largest economy due on Thursday.

What to expect on Dalal Street?

HDFC Securities' Shetti believes a sustainable move above a key hurdle at 17,250 could be considered the confirmation of a reversal. He is of the view that the Nifty50 is in a rangebound short-term trend with a positive bias.

"The market is making an attempt to form a short-term higher bottom formation around 16,950. A sustainable move above 17,260 could confirm more upside in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 16,950," he said.

LKP's Shah believes a breach above immediate resistance for the banking index at 39,500 will lead to a short covering move towards 40,000-41,000 levels.

Key moving averages

Wednesday's rise brought the Nifty50 within two percent of its long-term moving average.

Period (No. of sessions)Simple moving average
Nifty50Nifty Bank
517,097.438,990
1017,065.238,903.2
2017,127.838,965.8
5017,194.838,986.9
10017,109.838,705.6
20017,450.539,719.7

Key levels to watch out for

The maximum call open interest is accumulated at the strike price of 17,500, with 2.2 lakh contracts, and the next highest at 17,400, with 1.5 lakh contracts, according to provisional exchange data. The maximum put open interest is placed at 17,000, with 1.8 lakh contracts, and at 16,800, with 1.1 lakh.

This suggests a strong hurdle at 17,500 and a strong base at the 17,000 mark.

FII/DII activity

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers of Indian shares for the fourth session in a row on Wednesday, according to provisional exchange data.

Long build-up

Here are five stocks that saw an increase in open interest as well as price:

StockCurrent OICMPPrice changeOI change
NAVINFLUOR438,0754,700.952.57%19.11%
TVSMOTOR5,012,0001,088.503.20%14.53%
AXISBANK43,309,200808.952.99%14.27%
HINDPETRO19,367,1002110.24%10.18%
UBL981,6001,669.301.82%9.05%

Long unwinding

StockCurrent OICMPPrice changeOI change
DELTACORP20,297,500217-0.48%-3.83%
BIOCON21,293,400268.35-0.35%-1.47%
NMDC50,501,250131.1-0.04%-0.87%
ZEEL97,605,000268.55-1.41%-0.16%

(Increase in price and decrease in open interest)

Short covering

StockCurrent OICMPPrice changeOI change
INDIACEM15,135,1002512.76%-6.25%
EICHERMOT3,507,0003,455.301.40%-5.02%
DABUR13,387,500536.53.06%-4.00%
BAJAJ-AUTO2,508,2503,620.152.65%-3.66%
FSL15,672,800104.051.56%-3.28%

(Increase in price and decrease in open interest)

Short build-up

StockCurrent OICMPPrice changeOI change
ASIANPAINT5,274,6003,253-1.71%8.28%
WHIRLPOOL582,0501,599.20-1.44%6.67%
ABBOTINDIA45,16018,439.95-0.62%6.20%
HAVELLS4,122,0001,265-1.32%6.11%
INDHOTEL24,063,626331.2-0.09%5.53%

(Decrease in price and increase in open interest)

52-week highs

A total of six stocks in the BSE 500 universe — the broadest index on the bourse — reached the milestone: Chalet Hotels, Kalpataru Power, IDFC, IDFC First, KRBL and ZF Commercial Vehicle Control.

52-week lows

Eleven stocks hit 52-week lows:

ALOKTEXTMASTEKSHILPAMED
APLLTDMEDPLUSSUVENPHAR
BIOCONNATCOPHARMVOLTAS
LICIOFSS

First Published:Oct 12, 2022 6:04 PM IST

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