Going by last week's performance, the Nifty 50 gained 180 points in just three sessions between Monday-Wednesday. That's exactly the distance that separates the index from finally conquering the 20,000 mark, which it missed out by a mere eight points in July.

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There are reasons to believe that mount 20,000 will be finally scaled in the upcoming week, but there would always be some degree of skepticism.

In the belief camp, you have the fact that the Nifty 50 has gained for six straight sessions. From almost tumbling down towards 19,000 on September 1, the index has made a strong and swift reversal, conquering one resistance after another last week.

Some inflows into index heavyweight HDFC Bank due to the rebalancing exercise this week also adds to the hope of the index moving higher. The Nifty 50 also had its best week in three months, implying that the bulls are well and truly in control.

On the flip side, 20,000 has always been a strong resistance for the Nifty 50 as we witnessed in July. Global cues are not the best either with rising crude and the US Dollar. It will be interesting to see which way the index moves.

"Nifty 50 faces a minor hurdle at 19,870, as it made a swing high around this level on July 27. A strong break above this level will result in the index breaching its all-time high soon," said Ashwin Ramani of SAMCO Securities. The support for the index has now moved higher to 19,700.

Osho Krishnan of Angel One believes that 20,000 will barely be a task for the bulls, but one must not get complacent with the recent rally and wait for dips to initiate fresh long positions. 19,700 will act as a firm support for the Nifty 50, he said.

We had mentioned last week whether the banking stocks will eventually put their hand up to take the Nifty 50 higher. They have done so and how. The Nifty Bank index has gained 750 points in the last two trading sessions and finally closed above the mark of 45,000 for the first time since August 1.

The week saw the index gain over 1.5 percent, registering its best week since mid-July.

Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One said that the recent price action has the potential to take the Nifty Bank back to its all-time high of 46,350 and beyond in the near-term. Before that though, the index has a barrier between 45,800 - 46,000. Support levels have moved higher to 45,000 and 44,900.

The Nifty Bank has a strong resistance at the 45,500 mark, where the highest Open Interest is concentrated, said Kunal Shah of LKP Securities. However, he advises remaining in buy-on-dips mode as the index has a strong support at 44,800.

Coal India along with other power-linked PSUs will be in focus on Monday. India's largest coal miner gained as much as 19 percent last week, emerging as the top gainer on the Nifty 50 index. This was the best weekly performance for the stock since it became a public company in 2010. The stock is trading at a five-year high, but remains below its all-time high, which is around levels of Rs 450.

"Coal India is something which had a big breakout. The disclaimer we had trading positions, we booked out yesterday (Thursday), but I think the long term charts are very positive over here. I would not be surprised to see a target of around Rs 340-350," Mitessh Thakkar, technical analyst said. However, he added that the setups are currently overbought and he would wait for a dip to re-enter the stock.

What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

Nifty 50's September futures shed 0.9 percent or 90,250 shares in Open Interest. They are now trading at a premium of 52.5 points from 41.65 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank's futures shed 1.9 percent or 38,370 shares in Open Interest. Nifty 50's Put-Call Ratio is at 1.38 from 1.39 earlier.

Chambal Fertilisers has entered the F&O ban list from today's session while BHEL is out of the ban. Indiabulls Housing Finance, Balrampur Chini, Delta Corp, Hindustan Copper, India Cements, Manappuram, SAIL and PNB continue to remain in the F&O ban list.

Nifty 50 on the Call side for September 14 expiry:

For this Thursday's weekly expiry, the Nifty 50 Call strikes between 19,900 to 20,200 have seen a significant addition in Open Interest, with the 20,000 call seeing the maximum addition.

Nifty 50 on the Put side for September 14 expiry:

On the downside, the Nifty 50 put strikes between 19,700 and 19,800 have seen Open Interest addition for the week. In fact, the 19,000 Put, like Friday has also seen Open Interest addition.

Lets take a look at the stocks that saw fresh long positions on Friday, meaning an increase in price and Open Interest:

Lets take a look at the stocks that had fresh short positions on Friday, meaning a decrease in price but increase in Open Interest:

Some stocks also witnessed short-covering on Friday, meaning an increase in price but decrease in Open Interest:

Here are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Monday's trading session:

Reliance Industries: Partners with Nvidia to develop India's own AI infrastructure and language model.

TCS, Tata Communications: Nvidia collaborates with the Tata Group to deliver AI computing infrastructure and platforms for organisations, businesses and AI researchers and startups in India.

L&T, IRCON, Titagarh, RVNL, KEC International: Prime Minister Narendra Modi announces launch of rail corridor between India-West Asia-Europe. However, exact details of the project are not known.

Bharti Airtel: Chairman Sunil Bharti Mittal exclusively tells CNBC-TV18 that the company is very bullish on Africa and that the Geography has been growing at over 20 percent. Mittal further said that they will continue investing into African networks.

Adani Enterprises: Promoter acquired additional 2.06 percent stake from August 21-September 7, taking the total holdings to 71.93 percent.

Adani Ports & SEZ: Promoter acquired additional 2.17 percent stake from August 14-September 8, taking the total to 65.23 percent.

Shyam Metalics & Energy: Announces Offer for Sale (OFS) of a 5.1 percent stake or 1.3 crore shares with an option to sell another 1.19 percent or 30.4 lakh shares. Floor price of Rs 414 per share. OFS will open for non-retail shareholders today and retail shareholders on Tuesday. As of the June quarter, promoter entity held 88.35 percent stake in the company.

SJVN: Signs power purchase agreement with Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) to develop a 18 MW solar project.

PVR Inox: Jawaan collections cross Rs 200 crore in just three days. Additionally, the company has also opened a four screen multiplex in Dharwad, Karnataka.

What Are Global Cues Indicating?

Most Asia-Pacific markets are lower at the start of the new week where key economic data from major economies will be in focus.

The Nikkei 225 is flat, the Topix is up 0.3 percent, while the Kospi and Kosdaq are down 0.3 percent each. Hang Seng futures are pointing to a weak open.

India will release its inflation and industrial output figures for August, while China will announce industrial output, retail sales and house sale prices on Friday.

US markets ended slightly higher on Friday but could not prevent a weekly drop amidst concerns that the US Federal Reserve may raise rates more than expected.

The S&P 500 fell 1.3 percent for the week, while the Nasdaq fell 2 percent. Both had their first weekly drop in three weeks. For the Dow Jones, the index had a loss of 0.8 percent in the week.

Investors may have found some comfort in the lack of bad news during Friday’s session following a string of stronger-than-expected economic data points earlier in the week, said Bryce Doty, a senior vice president and portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, told CNBC.

Foreign investors remained net sellers in the cash market on Friday, while domestic investors were buyers.

The Nifty 50 on the weekly chart has formed a long bull candle, which indicates a sharp higher bottom reversal, said Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. He expects the index to move beyond 20,000 in the coming week with potential near-term targets of 20,100 and 20,200. Immediate support is at 19,650.

Rupak De of LKP Securities has observed substantial call writing at the 19,900 striek call, which can act as a potential hurdle for the index on the upside. "Looking ahead, only a decisive move above the 19,900 level has the potential to propel the index towards 20,200," he said. Support on the downside is at 19,700.

First Published:Sept 10, 2023 12:28 PM IST