In the best of times, trading is a difficult game to play but when the rules are changed midway or the playing arena resembles a minefield, any variable becomes the straw that breaks the camel's back. That doesn't mean that the entire rally is at risk but if one is looking for sustainable reasons to remain trading long, I'd say we are scrapping the bottom of the barrel.
China, SEBI, GDP, FPI long OI, MSCI rebal just provided the impetus to lighten up, that the underlying fundamentals aren't in sync were known for a long while. Yet, like lemmings, we kept trudging along until the cliff appeared.
In my road to a stop loss of 11550 on close, levels progressively climbed from 10850, 11255, 11350 and finally as the discomfort increased, 11550 and yet, the brutality of a multi-pronged cascade didn't allow me to hold the gains.
Some ask why I do not sell off at the first sign of worry, that's because, in my experience, I have had the market stop me out and then resume the rally. So I follow a system and let the market do the hard work.
I'd wait to see how volumes and spreads shape up in the days ahead but a 11387 close on Monday has closed out another decent call, just above my previous stop loss level of 11350.
I still believe there are trading tailwinds to trudge higher, but taking a break to think this through...
The author is an independent trader-cum-blogger and has worked at leading brokers on the institutional sales desk over the course of his near three-decade long career in the stock market.