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Trader's diary: AGR verdict means near-term certainty for telecom sector
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Trader's diary: AGR verdict means near-term certainty for telecom sector
Sep 2, 2020 1:15 AM

The contours of the Supreme Court's decision on AGR dues appear to indicate that the telecom sector will remain at least a step ahead of a duopoly for the near term. That should provide some degree of certainty along with talks of fundraisings and ARPU hikes.

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Now, the banking space awaits the decision on the moratorium, but this too shall pass. A transactional government, court, and polity make it possible to look beyond almost anything for the sake of a buck.

GDP print is now history and with people drawing conclusions from the auto numbers and GST collection figures, there is still a positive bias to the market. Even headlines with respect to geopolitics seem to point towards a continuation of the risk on the market where the catch-up by Nifty vis-a-vis the US indices needs to play out.

This could take the form of a grinding move up, once the 11550 level is taken out although I think that the US elections in early November are the next big test for global investor nerve. The rest of September still provides time for a test of the previous highs here.

For the moment, I remain on the sidelines as Nifty trades in the 11325 to 11550 range, but my bias is still long. With one round of sector rotation complete as banking and financial services made their move to help Nifty to 11800, a "transactional" court decision could still push a catch-up trade for the Bank Nifty.

Just for reference, so much has been thrown at the trader community in the last decade or more and eulogy has been written, but given the desire to rise up, every time they were written off for dead, traders always bounce back. In the end, every tightening of the rules of the game has made the market more resilient despite the occasional bad apple in the basket.

So, with a long bias, I'm waiting for 11550 to crack to initiate fresh trading long on the Nifty.

The author is an independent trader-cum-blogger and has worked at leading brokers on the institutional sales desk over the course of his near three-decade long career in the stock market.

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