(Adds context, updates at 0830 GMT)
By Alun John
LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The 10-year U.S. Treasury
yield fell sharply on Monday as traders looked to square some
positions ahead of Tuesday's presidential election, moves shaped
in part by a poll showing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris
with a surprise lead in Iowa.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year note was last down 5 bps
at 4.31%. The two year Treasury yield was down 3 bps at 4.17%.
"There's been a bit of a reversal of the 'Trump trade' that
we've been seeing over the past few weeks," said Samy Chaar,
chief economist Lombard Odier.
"The race doesn't look the same today as it did on
Friday. It's not changed to the point where you can say she
(Harris) has a lead, but he (Trump) no longer has strong
momentum."
Yields had been rising in the past few weeks as investors
put on trades betting Republican candidate Donald Trump could be
president again.
The current market consensus is Trump's policies on
immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on
inflation, bond yields and the dollar, and the 10-year yield has
risen over 50 basis points since the start of October.
Part of this rise in yields has been down to economic
data that has come in better than many had feared, causing
markets to reprice expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate
cut path.
Yet analysts at JPMorgan said about 21 basis points of
the recent move higher in 10-year yields was accounted for by
expectations the Republican party could win the Presidency and
both houses of Congress.
The weekend poll showed Harris leading Trump 47%-44% in
Iowa, which has been trending deeply Republican in recent years.
It is within the 3.4 percentage point margin of error,
and other polling shows the
race is tight
in the country's seven key battle ground states.
Other asset classes were also moving to reverse some Trump
trades. The dollar was also weaker on the day against most major
currencies, and dropped 0.6% on the rate-sensitive Japanese yen.
Also in the mix for U.S. Treasuries was last Friday's
data showing nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 jobs last
month after surging by a downwardly revised 223,000 in
September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls
rising 113,000.
Yields initially fell on the news, but rose late in the day
on Friday, which analysts attributed to nervousness ahead of the
election.