financetom
Market
financetom
/
Market
/
Treasuries rally as some 'Trump trades' unwind ahead of Nov 5 vote
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Treasuries rally as some 'Trump trades' unwind ahead of Nov 5 vote
Nov 4, 2024 1:28 AM

(Adds context, updates at 0830 GMT)

By Alun John

LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The 10-year U.S. Treasury

yield fell sharply on Monday as traders looked to square some

positions ahead of Tuesday's presidential election, moves shaped

in part by a poll showing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris

with a surprise lead in Iowa.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note was last down 5 bps

at 4.31%. The two year Treasury yield was down 3 bps at 4.17%.

"There's been a bit of a reversal of the 'Trump trade' that

we've been seeing over the past few weeks," said Samy Chaar,

chief economist Lombard Odier.

"The race doesn't look the same today as it did on

Friday. It's not changed to the point where you can say she

(Harris) has a lead, but he (Trump) no longer has strong

momentum."

Yields had been rising in the past few weeks as investors

put on trades betting Republican candidate Donald Trump could be

president again.

The current market consensus is Trump's policies on

immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on

inflation, bond yields and the dollar, and the 10-year yield has

risen over 50 basis points since the start of October.

Part of this rise in yields has been down to economic

data that has come in better than many had feared, causing

markets to reprice expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate

cut path.

Yet analysts at JPMorgan said about 21 basis points of

the recent move higher in 10-year yields was accounted for by

expectations the Republican party could win the Presidency and

both houses of Congress.

The weekend poll showed Harris leading Trump 47%-44% in

Iowa, which has been trending deeply Republican in recent years.

It is within the 3.4 percentage point margin of error,

and other polling shows the

race is tight

in the country's seven key battle ground states.

Other asset classes were also moving to reverse some Trump

trades. The dollar was also weaker on the day against most major

currencies, and dropped 0.6% on the rate-sensitive Japanese yen.

Also in the mix for U.S. Treasuries was last Friday's

data showing nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 jobs last

month after surging by a downwardly revised 223,000 in

September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls

rising 113,000.

Yields initially fell on the news, but rose late in the day

on Friday, which analysts attributed to nervousness ahead of the

election.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved