(Adds analyst comment, byline, updates yields)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury two-year
yields slipped on Wednesday after data showed an unexpected drop
in private-sector jobs last month, cementing the chances of a
rate cut from the Federal Reserve at least at the September
meeting.
U.S. two-year yields, which track interest rate expectations,
were slightly down at 3.77%. The benchmark 10-year
yield, on the other hand, came off highs following the report,
and was last up 4.2 bps at 4.291%.
Private payrolls dropped by 33,000 jobs last month after a
downwardly revised 29,000 increase in May, according to the ADP
National Employment Report. Economists polled by Reuters had
forecast private employment increasing 95,000 following a
previously reported gain of 37,000 in May.
"The ADP report increased the odds of a downside surprise in
Thursday's nonfarm payroll release," wrote Jeffrey J. Roach,
chief economist at LPL Financial in emailed comments after the
data.
"Investor jitters could be a catalyst for a drop in yields
tomorrow if the jobs report is weaker than expected. I expect a
weaker-than-consensus report, increasing the odds the Fed cuts
three times this year."
Futures tied to the benchmark fed funds rate lifted the
chances of a rate cut by the July policy meeting, pricing in as
much as a 27% chance of a July cut post-jobs data, according to
LSEG estimates. It was last at 24%, compared with a roughly 20%
just before the data release.
For the September meeting, the market has fully priced in a
25 basis-point rate decline.
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Andrew
Heavens and Chizu Nomiyama )