(Adds analyst comment, details on inflation data, Fed rate cut
odds, byline; updates prices)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Dec 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell
on Friday after data showed inflation in the world's largest
economy moderately cooled last month, backing the Federal
Reserve's interest rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point
earlier this week and bolstering expectations of two more
reductions next year.
The benchmark 10-year yield slid 6.6 basis points (bps) to
4.504%. On Thursday, it hit a 6-1/2 month high of
4.594% as the market priced in more inflation pressures under a
Donald Trump administration in 2025, with tariffs and tax cuts.
On the shorter end of the curve, the two-year yield,
which is more sensitive to the policy-rates outlook, fell 5.8
bps to 4.261%.
The report showed that monthly inflation slowed in November
after showing little improvement in recent months. The personal
consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% last month
after an unrevised 0.2% gain in October.
U.S. consumer spending, however, rose in November. Consumer
spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S.
economic activity, grew 0.4% last month after a downwardly
revised 0.3% gain in October.
Following the data, U.S. rate futures have priced in 44 bps
of rate easing or close to two cuts of 25 bps, LSEG calculations
showed. Futures showed just 37 bps of rate reductions in 2025
late on Thursday.
The earliest rate cut is now seen at the March meeting
with a 54% probability, LSEG data showed. On Thursday, it showed
that the earliest rate move would be June, with a 65%
likelihood.
"November inflation was more benign than expected but
the stickiness of some categories supports the Fed's hesitancy
to materially lower rates next year," wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief
economist at LPL Financial, in emailed comments.
"The economy continues to grow from strong consumer
demand as income growth and the wealth effect from higher
portfolio values give consumers capacity to spend."