(Adds details on data and analyst quote, updates yields)
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US producer prices fell on monthly basis in April
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US April retail sales edge up
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US factory output drops 0.4%
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US rate futures bet Fed will cut rates in September
By Tatiana Bautzer
NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell
on Thursday after data showed some deceleration in the world's
largest economy in April, including drops in producer prices and
manufacturing output and a slowdown in retail sales.
The reports suggested the Federal Reserve was on track to
cut interest rates at least twice this year.
In mid-morning trading, the yield on the benchmark U.S.
10-year Treasury note was down 4.1 basis points
(bps) after hitting a six-week high of 4.55% overnight.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell
6.7 bps to 3.986%.
Yields retreated after the release of data that showed U.S.
producer prices unexpectedly fell in April, with the index for
final demand dropping 0.5% after an upwardly revised unchanged
reading in March.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI would rise
0.2%.
"Clearly, companies absorbed a big chunk of tariff
increases," Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial, said in
emailed comments. "Whether they will continue to do so, or will
try to pass them on as price increases, remains to be seen."
At the same time, U.S. factory output slid more than expected,
down 0.4% last month after an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in
March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production
would slip 0.2% after a previously reported 0.3% rise.
U.S. retail sales, on the other hand, were mixed, with the
headline figure edging up 0.1% after an upwardly revised 1.7%
jump in March.
But core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, gasoline,
building materials and food services, fell 0.2% in April after
an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in March. This measure corresponds
most closely with the consumer spending component of gross
domestic product.
"The fall in core retail sales was surprising and is
helping push yields down," said Vail Hartman, a rates strategist
at BMO Capital Markets in New York. "That's a discouraging start
to the second quarter."
The overall data on Thursday reinforced bets on two
interest rate cuts by the Fed, with a roughly 75% chance that
the easing would begin in September, according to CME Group's
FedWatch tool.
A closely-watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of the economic
outlook, steepened to 49.9 bps, reflecting investor expectations
of more Fed rate cuts.