(Adds analyst quote, adds FedWatch data)
By David Randall
NEW YORK, July 5 (Reuters) - Benchmark 10-year Treasury
yields slid Friday following closely-watched jobs data that
appeared to show the U.S. labor market weakening, keeping market
expectations in place for the Federal Reserve to cut interest
rates in September.
Non-farm payrolls grew by 206,000 jobs in June, slightly
higher than the 190,000 new jobs estimated by economists polled
by Reuters. Estimated job growth for May, meanwhile, was revised
down to 218,000 new jobs from 272,000, while April's job growth
was revised down to 108,000 new jobs from a previous 165,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, slightly higher than the
estimated 4.0%.
The labor market has been a key focus for the Federal
Reserve in its debate over when to begin cutting interest rates
from nearly two-decade highs. The central bank has cited the
resiliency of the jobs market as a potential catalyst for a
possible resurgence in inflation.
"This was not a terrible report but with the large revisions
it shows there are cracks and weaknesses under the surface,"
said David Wagner, a portfolio manager at Aptus Capital
Advisors. "This keeps the (Fed's) September meeting a live
meeting for a rate cut."
Futures markets are now pricing in a roughly 72% chance
for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's meeting that
concludes September 18th, up from a 57.9% chance seen a week
ago, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Overall, markets are
pricing in a cumulative 50 basis points in interest rate cuts by
the end of the year.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 3.4 basis points to 4.314%, leaving it down
approximately 15 basis points for the week and near its lowest
levels since late June.
The yield on the 30-year bond fell 1.5
basis points to 4.505%.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations,
fell 5.4 basis points to 4.639%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a negative 32.7 basis points.