June 4 (Reuters) - Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields fell
to an almost three-week low on Tuesday after data showed that
job openings fell more than expected in April, before highly
anticipated jobs data on Friday may give fresh clues on Federal
Reserve policy.
Job openings, a measure of labor demand, were down 296,000
to 8.059 million on the last day of April, the lowest level
since February 2021.
The report "shows softening, or increasing balance, in the
labor market, which is what the Fed wants to see and what the
market wants to see," said Vail Hartman, U.S. rates strategist
at BMO Capital Markets in New York.
Investors are closely watching economic releases as Fed
policy remains heavily data dependent. Traders see the U.S.
central bank as likely to begin cutting rates as soon as
September if inflation continues to moderate closer to its 2%
annual target and if economic growth cools.
"There's a lot of sensitivity to the data because of how
dependent the Fed is to the data," said Zachary Griffiths,
senior investment grade strategist at CreditSights in Charlotte,
North Carolina.
Treasury yields fell sharply on Monday after data showed
that U.S. manufacturing slowed for a second straight month in
May as new goods orders dropped by the most in nearly two years.
That may indicate that there is "more sensitivity to the
downside in yields," Griffiths noted, given "that's been an
indicator that's been very negative for almost two years now."
Benchmark 10-year note yields were last down 5
basis points at 4.353% and got as low as 4.324%, the lowest
since May 16.
Two-year note yields fell 4 basis points to
4.783% and reached 4.756%, also the lowest since May 16.
The inversion in the two-year, 10-year yield curve
deepened 1 basis points to minus 43 basis points.
Higher-than-expected inflation and strong growth in the
first quarter led investors to adjust for the likelihood that
the Fed will need to keep rates higher for longer to cool the
economy and bring down price pressures. Some softer data reports
in April, however, have boosted confidence that the economy may
slow enough for monetary easing this year.
This week's main U.S. economic release will be jobs data for
May due on Friday, which is expected to show that employers
added 185,000 jobs in May. It comes after April's report showed
that jobs growth slowed more than expected, with 175,000 jobs
gains, the fewest in six months.
"If that were to show more tightness in the labor market and
perhaps a pause in some of the progress toward better balance in
the labor market I could see this move reversing fairly
quickly," with yields heading higher, Griffiths said.
A softer number, however, could also extend the move lower
in yields, Griffiths added.
Other data this week will include the ADP National
Employment report and service sector data for May, both due on
Wednesday.
Next week's consumer price index (CPI) for May will then be
critical for guiding Fed expectations in the near-term. It will
come on Wednesday morning before the Fed is due to complete its
two-day policy meeting, when Fed officials will update their
economic and interest rate projections, which is known as the
"dot plot."
"If we're fairly consensus across headline payrolls, average
hourly earnings and unemployment rate, then I think that the
onus will be put on CPI next Wednesday in terms of solidifying
whether or not we're going to see 25 basis points or 50 basis
points signaled before year end in the dot plot," Hartman said.