(Updated at 10:30 EST)
By Karen Brettell
March 6 (Reuters) -
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to a one-month
low on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said
that continued progress on inflation "is not assured," though
the central bank still expects to reduce its benchmark interest
rate later this year.
"If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely
be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some
point this year," Powell said in remarks prepared for delivery
to the House Financial Services Committee.
The comments were largely anticipated as Fed officials
caution that they want to see further progress on inflation
before cutting rates.
"Powell pretty much straight out said that they're done
with rate hikes. That's a big risk the market was concerned
with," said Marvin Loh, senior global macro strategist at State
Street in Boston.
"Certainly, they feel that policy is restricted enough
that it's going to do its job. It's just a matter of how long
it's going to take," Loh added.
Investors are focused on Friday's jobs report for
February for the next clues on when the U.S. central bank is
likely to begin cutting rates.
It is expected to show that employers added 200,000 jobs
during the month, according to economists' polled by Reuters.
Private payrolls increased by 140,000 jobs last month
after rising by an upwardly revised 111,000 in January, the ADP
Employment report showed on Wednesday.
Other data on Wednesday showed that U.S. job openings fell
marginally in January, while hiring declined as labor market
conditions continue to gradually ease.
Will Compernolle, a macro strategist at FHN Financial in
New York, notes that markets are concerned that growth may
"overheat," but adds that this would only be problematic if
inflation is also high.
Thus, next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for
February is also key for future Fed moves and market sentiment.
"If the employment report comes in mostly as expected it
all hinges on Tuesday's CPI, because that shows whether this
strong growth is something to be worried about or whether it is
something to celebrate," Compernolle said.
The CPI is expected to show that headline prices rose
0.4% last month, while core prices gained 0.3%.
Benchmark 10-year yields were last down 3 basis
points on the day at 4.112%, and got as low as 4.096%, the
lowest since Feb. 8.
Two-year yields fell 1 basis point to 4.539%. The
inversion in the yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes
deepened by two basis points to minus 43 basis
points.
Fed funds futures traders see a 73% probability the Fed will
begin cutting rates in June, according to the CME Group's
FedWatch Tool.