(Updated at 10:30 EST)
By Karen Brettell
March 7 (Reuters) - Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury
yields fell to one-month lows on Thursday after the European
Central Bank (ECB) revised down its inflation projections, but
rebounded to last be little changed on the day before key U.S.
jobs data on Friday.
Traders are also watching testimony by Federal Reserve Chair
Jerome Powell to Congress after he said on Wednesday that
interest rate cuts are likely in coming months, but only if
warranted by further evidence of falling inflation.
The ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected on
Thursday but acknowledged that inflation is easing faster than
once thought, potentially opening the way for rate cuts later
this year.
That sent European bond yields lower, with markets now
pricing in over 100 basis points rate cuts by the ECB this year.
Treasury yields also fell and were "following the move in
Europe," said Tom di Galoma, managing director and co-head of
global rates trading at BTIG in New York. "It was kind of a
dovish signal from the ECB."
Yields also moved lower following Powell's testimony on
Wednesday as investors unwound hedges that were placed in case
he took a more hawkish tone, said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income
strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.
"There was a prospect that Powell could come out
slightly more hawkish after January's high inflation print, but
he largely ignored it," LeBas said.
Investors will next watch Friday's employment report for
February for clues on when the U.S. central bank is likely to
begin cutting rates. It is expected to show that employers added
200,000 jobs during the month.
It comes after unexpectedly strong jobs and inflation
reports for January, which were attributed in part to seasonal
factors.
Benchmark 10-year yields were last little
changed on the day at 4.108%, after earlier reaching 4.054%, the
lowest since Feb. 5.
Two-year yields fell 2 basis points to 4.539%.
The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and 10-year
notes narrowed by two basis points to minus 43
basis points.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 72% probability
the Fed will begin cutting rates in June, according to the CME
Group's FedWatch Tool.