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Fed officials suggest potential rate cuts amid economic
uncertainty
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Empire State index rises more than expected
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Miran sees two more rate cuts this year
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Longer-dated U.S. Treasury
yields were lower on Wednesday, as the latest comments from U.S.
officials cast some doubt on whether a trade agreement with
China was on the horizon.
Yields moved lower after U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson
Greer described China's major expansion of its rare earths
export controls as a complete repudiation of U.S.-Chinese trade
agreements over the past six months.
In addition, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it is not
clear whether China's recent restrictions on exports of rare
earth minerals represent a split politically inside its trade
negotiating team, but that he doesn't believe Beijing wants to
be an "agent of chaos."
"It's on the trade stuff ... it seems to be keying off of them
for some reason. Nothing seems to be getting done, and if
anything, I think it's China becoming sort of a lone wolf here,"
said Tom di Galoma, managing director at Mischler Financial
Group in Stamford, Connecticut.
"For the most part, the Treasury market's been pretty quiet, the
ranges and yield curve trades have been somewhat subdued, and
we're probably ready for a little bit of a breakout here, one
way or the other."
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 1.1 basis points to 4.011%.
The yield on the 30-year bond fell 2.2 basis
points to 4.602%.
Investors were also still grappling with a lack of U.S.
economic data as the government shutdown drags on to its
fifteenth day.
However, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said its Empire
State manufacturing index rose to 10.7 in October, up from the
negative 8.7 in September and negative 1.4 estimate of
economists polled by Reuters.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 52 basis points.
On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that
policymakers will take a "meeting-by-meeting" approach to any
further interest rate cuts and that the central bank may be
nearing the end of its quantitative tightening effort to reduce
the size of its holdings, keeping market expectations for the
path of monetary policy largely intact.
Also on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President
Susan Collins said that rising job market risks argue for
another rate cut.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, rose
1 basis point to 3.489%.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Wednesday that two more cuts
from the central bank this year "sounds realistic."
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.366% after closing at 2.354% on Tuesday, its lowest since July
2.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.308%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.3% a year for the next decade.