* Import prices rose 0.3% last month
* 10-year yield set for first weekly decline after two
straight advances
* CME FedWatch shows markets pricing a 10.2% chance of a
July hike
(Updates to afternoon trading)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, July 17 (Reuters) - Longer-dated U.S. Treasury
yields dipped on Friday after the latest round of economic data
and were set for a weekly decline as markets have largely priced
out any chance of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve at its
policy meeting later this month.
The Labor Department said import prices increased 0.3% last
month, above the estimate of economists polled by Reuters that
called for a 0.7% decrease, after a downwardly revised 1.7%
advance in May.
The data showed declines in the costs of food and energy
products were more than offset by higher prices for capital and
consumer goods.
Expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points
from the Fed tumbled earlier this week after readings on
consumer and producer prices were cooler than expected.
Money markets are now pricing in only a 14.4% chance for a hike
in July, according to CME FedWatch, down from slightly more than
40% on Monday. However, expectations for a hike at the central
bank's September meeting stand at 57.1%.
But recent comments from multiple Fed officials, including
Chairman Kevin Warsh, have flagged concerns about inflation
pressures while noting the labor market remains stable.
"The market is still not sure what to do with all this
information - you have the Fed sounding extremely hawkish, the
data coming in not as hawkish, but it's also one reading," said
Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities
in New York.
Geopolitical worries are also re-escalating ahead of the
weekend, he added.
"So it's unclear as to whether a lot of this transitory
noise in inflation will remain transitory, or whether the Fed
should be starting to look at it more closely as a potential
source of inflationary pressure."
BENCHMARK YIELD SET FOR WEEKLY DECLINE
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 2.8 basis points to 4.541%. The yield was
down nearly three basis points on the week and set for its first
weekly drop after climbing for two straight weeks.
Yields had been retreating since mid-May as tensions between the
U.S. and Iran appeared to be waning, pushing oil prices lower.
However, hostilities have intensified in recent weeks, including
attacks on infrastructure, causing a reversal in crude prices to
one-month highs.
U.S. crude jumped 4.74% to $82.69 a barrel and Brent
climbed to $88.14 per barrel, up 4.64% on the day.
The yield on the 30-year bond shed 3.3 basis
points to 5.064% and was slightly lower on the week, which would
mark its first weekly decline in three.
A risk-off move that was weighing on stocks may have been
providing a bid to bonds, said Mona Mahajan, head of investment
strategy and asset allocation at Edward Jones. "We're seeing a
similar move in the bond market with, despite the higher oil
prices, bond yields are moving lower today, so maybe bonds
acting as a bit of that flight to safety trade."
Late Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
suggested he would be open to raising interest rates if there is
no near-term improvement in inflation, though for now he
believes it will be enough to hold short-term borrowing costs
steady.
His comments came after Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie
Logan called for "modestly higher" interest rates earlier in the
day.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 36.9 basis points.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Fed, fell 2.2 basis points to 4.134% and was down four basis
points on the week.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.271% after closing at 2.248% on Thursday.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.245%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.2% a year for the next decade.