(Adds new comments, 7-year note auction results, updates yields)
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Yields drop after weak job openings report
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Fed expected to maintain current interest rates
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Treasury likely to maintain current auction sizes
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US 10-year, 30-year yields fall to multi-week lows
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Strong seven-year note auction pushes yields lower
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, July 29 (Reuters) -
U.S. Treasuries rose across the board on Tuesday, pushing
yields to multi-week lows, following a surprisingly sterling
seven-year note auction that quelled concerns about diminishing
demand for government debt and a weaker-than-expected report on
job openings for June, suggesting pockets of weakness in the
labor sector.
Investors were also positioning ahead of Wednesday's Federal
Reserve decision and a government announcement of its financing
plans for this quarter. While the Fed is broadly expected to
keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50%
range when its two-day meeting ends on Wednesday, some market
participants believe the central bank could likely signal
potential easing in September.
"There will be a robust debate of 'doves' vs. 'hawks' at
tomorrow's Fed meeting, but there won't be a 'deal with the
devil at the crossroads' to cut rates yet," wrote Thierry
Wizman, global FX and rates strategist, at Macquarie in a
research note. "Still, the 'doves' have a point about the
pockets of weakness in the U.S. economy, and the U.S.'s trade
deals undercut (Fed Chair ) Jay Powell's favorite excuse for not
easing.
In afternoon trading, the benchmark 10-year yield fell to its
lowest since July 3, and was last down nine basis points (bps)
to 4.330% US10YT=RR. The yield was on pace for its largest daily
drop since June 4. U.S. 30-year yields also dropped to their
weakest level in three weeks. They last changed hands down 9.3
bps at 4.871% US30YT=RR.
On the short end of the curve, the two-year yield, which
reflects interest rate expectations, slid 4.9 bps to 3.873%
US2YT=RR. Earlier in the session, the yield fell to a more than
one-week low.
The robust $44 billion seven-year note sale was a major
driver for Treasuries, pricing at
4.092%
, lower by roughly 2.6 bps than the expected rate at the bid
deadline, suggesting the note was snapped up by investors
without a premium. The auction saw record demand from domestic
investors of 33.7%, an all-time high in end-user demand of 96%,
and an unprecedented low uptake from primary dealers of only
4.1%. The latter was a positive sign, suggesting that the
auction was so successful and the seven-year note so in-demand
that dealers had to take in a record low share of the offering.
Earlier in the session, Treasury yields on the long end of the
curve extended their fall after data showed U.S. job openings
and hiring decreased in June, with openings falling 275,000 to
7.437 million by the last day of the month, the Labor
Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its Job Openings
and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.50 million
unfilled jobs.
Hiring also dropped, down 261,000 at 5.204 million in June,
undermined by persistent uncertainty about where tariff levels
will eventually settle that has left businesses hesitant to
boost hiring.
"As the Fed meets, they should take note of the drop in job
openings and the fall in quits. The labor market was solid, but
it is softening," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist, at Annex
Wealth Management, in Brookfield, Wisconsin. "There's no reason
the Fed should flirt with recession by digging in its heels on
insisting everything is fine."
Another piece of data, on the other hand, showed that
consumer confidence rose in July, with the index increasing 2.0
points to 97.2 this month. Economists polled by Reuters had
forecast the index would increase to 95.0. The report briefly
pushed two-year yields slightly higher.
But the market's focus overall was on two key events this
week: the Fed decision and the Treasury's refunding
announcement.
"I think there will be more discussions within the committee
to lower rates," said David Norris, partner at TwentyFour Asset
Management. "There's room for rates to be lower than where they
are. There's potential because we're getting more clarity on the
impact of tariffs."
As for the Treasury's refunding, the department is widely
anticipated to keep current auction sizes for notes and bonds
for the next several quarters. Analysts said the Treasury can
afford to delay increasing the auction sizes for longer-maturity
debt given its focus on the issuance of more Treasury bills
where demand has been robust. Treasury recently ramped up
issuance of short-dated bills to replenish its cash balance,
which has shrunk to about $300 billion.
"There are major questions in the coming quarters about what
the mix of financing will be," said Lou Crandall, chief
economist, at money market research firm Wrightson ICAP in New
York. "But there's really no urgency about addressing that this
quarter. This quarter, we're going to get a lot of (Treasury)
bills."