(Adds analyst comment, yield curve, updates yields)
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Comments by Fed's Waller highlight slower private-sector
hiring
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US 10-year, 30-year yields set for third straight weekly
rise
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US housing starts rise in June
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US consumer inflation expectations dip
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries rose on
Friday, dragging yields lower, after Federal Reserve Governor
Christopher Waller pushed for a rate cut later this month,
citing a slowdown in private-sector hiring.
Technical buying also contributed to the move higher in
Treasury prices after being sold for most of the week, analysts
said. U.S. Treasury yields across the curve hit multiweek peaks
earlier this week.
Analysts specifically pointed to the 10-year note, which
showed that momentum indicators have moved to oversold
territory, suggesting a pullback was under way.
Friday's economic reports were mixed, providing little
clarity on the day's rate moves. The benchmark 10-year yield was
down 3 basis points (bps) at 4.434%, but up for a
third straight week. U.S. 30-year yields slipped, down 1.4 bps
at 5.001%, but were also on track for their third
consecutive weekly rise.
The two-year yield, which reflects interest rate
expectations, fell 3.9 bps to 3.878%. On the week,
the yield was down 3.7 bps, its largest weekly decline since
June 23.
Analysts noted that Waller's comments kept Treasuries well-bid
earlier in the session. He reiterated his stance late on
Thursday and on Friday that the Fed should cut interest rates at
the end of this month amid mounting risks to the economy and the
strong likelihood that tariff-induced inflation will not drive a
persistent rise in price pressures.
Waller was also concerned about private-sector hiring starting
to slow.
"Comments by Waller about potentially cutting rates this
month seem to be spurring some optimism overall," said Zachary
Griffiths, head of investment-grade and macro strategy at
CreditSights in Charlotte, North Carolina.
"It's propelling not only a rally in Treasuries, but risk
sentiment more broadly."
Griffiths said Waller has made his stance on rate cuts
well-known for several weeks, but his focus on the labor market
instead of inflation caught the market's attention.
"It's opening this front that the labor market is weaker,
and introducing this idea or justification for earlier moves."
Bond investors, however, expect the Fed to remain on hold at
this month's policy meeting. The U.S. rate futures market,
though, has very slightly increased the odds of a rate cut in
July to 4.7% from about 3% a few days ago in the wake of
Waller's comments, according to LSEG estimates. The September
probability, which was about 50-50 on Thursday, increased to 61%
on Friday.
RESILIENT ECONOMY
On the data front, Friday's numbers continued to depict an
economy that is fairly resilient, with some pockets of weakness.
U.S. housing starts, for one, increased by 4.6% in June,
higher than expectations. Multi-family housing starts also
rebounded sharply. But single-family housing starts, which
account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 4.6% to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 883,000 units last month, the
lowest level since July 2024.
Another report - the University of Michigan Surveys of
Consumers - showed that consumer sentiment remained upbeat while
inflation expectations declined. The Consumer Sentiment Index
rose to 61.8 this month from a final reading of 60.7 in June.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would
increase to 61.5.
Data further showed consumers' 12-month inflation
expectations dropped to 4.4% from 5.0% in June. Long-run
inflation expectations fell to 3.6% from 4.0% last month.
Dan Siluk, head of global short duration and liquidity at
Janus Henderson Investors, said the underlying message from the
data is that the U.S. economy remains strong, even though
political uncertainty, especially on trade policy, could lead to
bouts of additional volatility.
But he noted that rates on the front end of the U.S. curve
remained in the 3.80%-4% range.
"From an investor perspective, that's a good thing in the
sense (that) you're able to comfortably allocate and put capital
or put risk to work ... So we're comfortable with that stubborn
resilience in the economy, but we have to be cautiously
optimistic as investors because of the uncertainty."
In other parts of the bond market, the yield curve steepened
slightly on Friday, with the gap between two-year and 10-year
yields at 54.9 bps, up from 54.4 bps late on
Thursday.
The U.S. yield curve has stabilized, pulling back from
massive steepening on Wednesday, following initial news reports
that President Donald Trump planned to fire Fed Chair Jerome
Powell. Trump denied those reports.
The curve hit 61.8 bps on Wednesday, the widest spread since
April, reflecting a selloff in longer-dated debt on concerns
that the Fed under a new chairman could cut rates aggressively,
reigniting inflation.