(Updates market prices.)
By David Randall
NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - Benchmark 10-year U.S.
Treasury yields rose to their highest levels since late May on
Monday at the start of a holiday-shortened week that will likely
be marked by low trading volumes.
The jump in yields, which move inversely to prices, occurred
a day after the first round of voting in France's national
elections suggested that Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN)
scored a smaller win than some polls had expected.
At the same time, U.S. President Joe Biden's widely panned
performance in a debate last week may be prompting investors to
price in a greater likelihood that former President Donald Trump
will prevail in the Nov. 5 presidential election, putting extra
pressure on Treasuries, said Thierry Wizman, global forex and
rates strategist at Macquarie Group.
"For a variety of reasons having to do with fiscal policy,
tariff policy, and immigration policy, we do believe that a
prospective Trump administration in 2025-2028 will be more
inflationary than a Biden administration," he said.
The selloff in the longer end of the curve suggested that
the move was not related to concerns about the Federal Reserve's
fight against inflation, but reflected concerns about rising
budget deficits under a second Trump administration, said
Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist for LPL
Financial.
"There's some election anxiety that's being brought into the
markets with the increase in the odds of Trump winning the
presidency," he said.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
rose 13.8 basis points to 4.481%. The yield on the
30-year bond rose 14.2 basis points to 4.644%.
Ten-year Treasury yields pulled back briefly following a
reading by the Institute for Supply Management that showed U.S.
manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in June and
a measure of prices paid by factories for inputs dropped to a
six-month low amid weak demand for goods.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 5.2 basis
points to 4.772%.
The selloff produced a "bear steepener," in which
longer-duration Treasuries lost more ground than those with
shorter durations, leaving the closely watched gap between
yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes at a
negative 29.3 basis points, its least inverted position since
May.
Trading will close early on Wednesday and the bond market
will be closed on Thursday due to the U.S. Independence Day
holiday.