(Updates in European trading hours)
By Harry Robertson and Tom Westbrook
LONDON/SINGAPORE, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Short-dated Treasury
yields climbed on Monday while those on longer-dated bonds fell
as impending U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China sent
investors scrambling to work out the implications for Federal
Reserve interest rates.
U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to impose 25% tariffs
on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China - the United
States' three largest trading partners -
rocked global markets
on Monday.
Most currencies tumbled against the dollar and European
stocks and U.S. futures fell sharply as investors assessed the
potential hit to the global economy. The dollar index, which
measures the U.S. currency against six peers, rose more than 1%
.
The reaction in the bond market was less clear cut,
however, given that tariffs raise the risk of higher prices but
slower growth in the United States, potentially pulling the Fed
in different directions.
Two-year Treasury yields, which are
particularly sensitive to Fed policy, wavered and were last up 3
basis points (bps) at 4.263%, around their highest in a week.
Yields move inversely to prices.
Yet longer-dated bond yields fell, with some analysts
saying investors were buying safe assets as they sold equities.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell
around 7 bps in Asian trading hours but was last down 3 bps at
4.533%.
Meanwhile, 30-year Treasury yields were down
5 bps at 4.764%, having also fallen around 7 bps in Asian hours.
"Rates (government bond markets) will struggle between
the inflationary impact which would push rates higher and growth
impact which would push them lower," said Mohit Kumar, European
economist at Jefferies.
"Our view would be that the risk aversion moves
dominate, but still see limited impact on rates."
The impact of the tariffs was clearer in Europe, which
Trump said he would also hit with levies although did not
specify when.
Germany's two-year bond yield, which is
sensitive to expectations about European Central Bank interest
rates, fell 7 bps to 2.042%, its lowest level since the start of
the year.
Traders moved to price in fewer U.S. interest rate cuts
this year, with money markets pointing to 39 bps of reductions
by the end of December, down from 43 bps on Friday.
Tariffs, in theory, slow growth which ought to support
bonds. However, they also raise prices and potentially give
companies cover for further price hikes or for consumers to
start to expect price rises and press for higher wages.
"Increased U.S. tariffs underscore our view 10-year
Treasury yields will rise to 5% as a second Trump term boosts
inflation," said, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist at Bank of
Singapore, the private banking arm of OCBC Bank.
A closely watched market-based gauge of long-term U.S.
inflation expectations ticked up slightly to 2.58% on Monday,
from 2.55% on Friday.