(Updates to afternoon trading)
* Fed keeps interest rates unchanged
* Thirty-year yield on track for biggest gain since May
* Crude oil jump fans inflation worries
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, July 29 (Reuters) - Shorter-dated U.S. Treasury
yields jumped on Wednesday on a surge in oil prices before
erasing the gains and turning lower after the Federal Reserve
held interest rates steady.
The U.S. central bank left the benchmark interest rate in the
3.50%-3.75% range, a decision that drew dissents from three of
the 12 members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market
Committee who "preferred" a quarter-percentage-point hike at
this week's meeting.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
gained 3.5 basis points to 4.639% after climbing to
4.6549%.
"Each meeting we're now building more uncertainty around it than
the last. It looks like September now (for a rate hike), maybe
we're building to that crescendo, but we'll have to see how the
data shakes out now over the interim," said JP Powers, chief
investment officer at RWA Wealth Partners in Boston.
"Looking at the two-year (Treasury yield) before this, backing
up on a day where we have a war escalating, it really shows you
how concerned the market is that we were potentially going to
see rates moving higher today."
Yields were higher earlier in the day in part due to a surge in
crude oil prices, as major fighting in the Iran war resumed and
stoked inflation worries ahead of the Fed's rate decision.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, fell
5 basis points to 4.227% after rising to 4.339%.
Markets had been pricing in a roughly one-in-three chance of a
hike heading into the meeting, as recent economic data
indicating a cooling of price pressures conflicted with the
inflation concerns triggered by the volatility in crude prices
due to the war in Iran.
Recent comments from several U.S. officials, including Fed
Chairman Kevin Warsh, have signaled greater concern over price
pressures than the labor market, which remains on stable
footing.
HIGHER OIL PRICES
Crude prices shot up around 7% after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia
jointly struck Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq on Wednesday,
the first U.S. airstrikes in the Middle East since President
Donald Trump suspended a bombing campaign against Iran last
week.
In addition, Iran said it had fired on U.S. bases in Jordan
and at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Trump to promise
retaliatory strikes.
U.S. crude settled up 6.56% at $84.46 a barrel and Brent
settled at $90.74 per barrel, up 7.91% on the day.
The yield on the 30-year bond jumped 7.1 basis
points to 5.167% and was on track for its biggest daily gain
since May 15.
Warsh, speaking to reporters in a press conference after the
release of the Fed's policy statement, said that more forward
guidance on monetary policy decisions may be prudent in moments
of financial crisis, such as the 2008-2009 period, but it's
worth revisiting such guidance during more benign periods.
"It sounds like Warsh will take his lead from the markets. If
real yields fall, he may opt to hike. If real yields stay where
they are or rise, he can comfortably sit on his hands," said
Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth
Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 41.3 basis points, its highest
since June 5.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.232% after closing at 2.171% on Tuesday, its lowest close
since November 2024.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.24%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.2%
a year for the next decade.