(Updated with New York afternoon trading)
By Karen Brettell
Jan 10 (Reuters) - Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields
jumped to their highest levels since November 2023 on Friday
after data showed employers added 256,000 jobs in December, far
surpassing economists' expectations, while the unemployment rate
fell.
Employers were expected to have added 160,000 jobs during
the month. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, below forecasts
for 4.2%.
"This report will fuel yields even higher. The labor market
is not showing any signs of weakening," said Peter Cardillo,
chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New
York.
Traders are now betting the Federal Reserve will wait until
at least June to reduce its policy rate. Before the monthly jobs
report, traders had seen the Fed cutting as early as May with
about a 50% chance of a second rate cut before the end of the
year.
"The market is saying that the Fed can embark on an extended
pause here, and momentum may continue to remain bearish until
data starts to soften," said Angelo Manolatos, macro strategist
at Wells Fargo in Charlotte.
Yields have jumped in recent months on expectations that
policies by the incoming Donald Trump administration will boost
growth and potentially also inflation, though there remains
considerable uncertainty over what policies exactly will be
implemented.
Concerns about the worsening U.S. budget deficit have also
underlined the move, while Fed officials have said that they
will be more cautious about further rate cuts as inflation
remains above their 2% annual target.
"In December, it was mainly the hawkish Fed and less of an
appetite for Treasuries generally, with investors getting more
concerned about deficits," said Manolatos. "Now, so far in 2025,
I think it's been a function of stronger data."
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields reached 4.79%
while 30-year yields jumped to 5.005%, both the
highest since November 2023.
Interest rate-sensitive two-year yields rose to
4.39%, the highest since July 2024. The yield curve between
two-year and 10-year notes flattened by around 4
basis points on the day to 38 basis points.
Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave said in a report on
Friday that "after a very strong Dec jobs report, we think the
cutting cycle is over. Inflation is stuck above target, with
upside risks."
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday
that there is no evidence the U.S. economy is overheating again
despite a blowout December jobs report, adding he still expects
it will be appropriate to lower interest rates further.
Economic releases next week will include producer and
consumer price inflation data for December.