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TREASURIES-Treasury prices rise as geopolitical risks, poor bank results spur buying
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TREASURIES-Treasury prices rise as geopolitical risks, poor bank results spur buying
Apr 12, 2024 8:39 AM

NEW YORK, April 12 (Reuters) - Treasury prices rose on

Friday as investors grappled with revised expectations for

Federal Reserve rate cuts after hot inflation readings this week

and as geopolitical concerns spurred safe-haven buying.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she's eyeing two

rate cuts this year amid expectations it could take some time to

get inflation back to policymakers' 2% target, adding her voice

to other Fed officials who have recently pushed back on market

views for a quick cut to interest rates.

Collins' remarks followed a speech in which she said the

U.S. central bank is likely to cut its policy rate at some point

this year but that uncertainties and risks around inflation mean

the Fed needs to take its time before doing so.

Treasury buying also was spurred by dour results from

several large U.S. banks, including JPMorgan, the biggest U.S.

bank by assets, which kicked off the first-quarter earnings

season on Friday. Heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle

East also played a part, analysts said.

"What's happening today is a combination of worries about

geopolitical risk, especially in the Middle East over the next

several days," said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates

strategy at TD Securities in New York.

"A lot of investors don't want to be holding risky assets

heading into the weekend and there's a little bit of

disappointment on some of the bank earnings as well."

Treasury yields, which move inversely to their price, soared

on Wednesday after a hotter-than-expected report on the consumer

price index.

The two-year Treasury's yield surged past 5% on Thursday as

futures slashed bets on the number of Fed rate cuts to two and

pushed back the start of the easing cycle to September from

expectations of June.

Market bets on the Fed cutting its target rate in June fell

to 25.8%, down from 53.2% last week, according to the CME

Group's FedWatch Tool.

The yield on two-year Treasury notes, which

typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was

unchanged at 4.892% while the benchmark 10-year note's yield

fell 7 basis points to 4.509%.

"Some investors are buying the dip, so to speak, and making

sure that they get in at these highly attractive levels,"

Goldberg said. "There's a lot of uncertainty as to what happens

next. A lot of investors are debating whether rate cuts are

still possible this year."

The difference in two- and 10-year Treasury yields, seen as

a recession harbinger when a shorter-duration yield is higher,

or inverted, than longer securities, was at -38.5 basis points.

The yield on the 30-year bond fell 5 basis

points to 4.611%.

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