(Adds comment in paragraphs 7-8, updates prices at 2:40 p.m. ET
(1840 GMT)
By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK, April 12 (Reuters) - Treasury prices rose on
Friday, pushing yields lower as Middle East tensions spurred
safe-haven buying and as hot inflation readings earlier this
week forced investors to sharply readjust their outlook for
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she's eyeing two
rate cuts this year, adding her voice to other Fed officials who
have recently pushed back on market views for a quick series of
cuts and an easing of monetary policy.
Collins' remarks followed a speech in which she said the
U.S. central bank is likely to cut its policy rate at some point
this year but that uncertainties and risks around inflation mean
the Fed needs to take its time before doing so.
Treasury buying also was spurred by dour results from
several large U.S. banks, including JPMorgan ( JPM ), the
biggest U.S. bank by assets, and Israeli fears of an imminent
attack by Iran or its proxies also played a part, analysts said.
"A lot of investors don't want to be holding risky assets
heading into the weekend, and there's a little bit of
disappointment on some of the bank earnings as well," said
Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities
in New York.
But the biggest catalyst was the hotter-than-expected report
on the consumer price index on Wednesday.
"This report has challenged a lot of the assumptions that
the market has had about the Fed cycle and what that means for
broader asset markets," said Brian Daingerfield, a macro
strategist at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut.
"What the CPI print has forced the market to reckon with is
this possibility that the Fed might be in a position to not cut
at all this year," he said. "You have this reset higher in
rates, this reset higher in expectations and this change in the
discussion around the Fed."
The two-year Treasury's yield surged past 5% on Thursday as
futures traders slashed bets on the number of Fed rate cuts to
two and pushed back the start of the easing cycle to September
from expectations of June.
Market bets on the Fed cutting its target rate in June fell
to 27.1%, down from 53.2% last week, according to the CME
Group's FedWatch Tool.
The yield on two-year Treasury notes, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, slid
8.1 basis points to 4.8822%, while the yield on the benchmark
10-year Treasury note's yield fell 5.8 basis points
to 4.499%.
"Some investors are buying the dip, so to speak, and making
sure that they get in at these highly attractive levels,"
Goldberg said. "There's a lot of uncertainty as to what happens
next. A lot of investors are debating whether rate cuts are
still possible this year."
The difference in two- and 10-year Treasury yields, seen as
a recession harbinger when a shorter-duration yield is higher,
or inverted, than longer securities, was at -38.24 basis points
.
The yield on the 30-year bond fell 6 basis
points to 4.603%.