* June CPI rose 3.5% on year-over-year basis, down 0.4% on
the month
* July rate hike expectations tumble
* Fed's Warsh says central bank has not satisfied price
stability mandate
(Updates to afternoon trading)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields declined
on Tuesday after data showed consumer inflation slowed more than
expected in June, dampening market expectations for a near-term
rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
The Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index increased
3.5% in the 12 months through June after surging 4.2% in May,
the largest year-on-year rise since April 2023. On a monthly
basis, CPI fell 0.4% after a 0.5% increase in May. Economists
polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would rise 3.8% on a
year-over-year basis and dip 0.1% on a monthly basis.
"This (report) is a bit of a surprise. And obviously, it all
reflects one thing, the fall in energy prices," said Peter
Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities
in New York.
"This should help relieve some worries in the bond market,
and it should give some wiggling room for the Fed."
Yields pared declines however, as Federal Reserve Chairman
Kevin Warsh gave testimony to the House Financial Services
Committee and said today's data does not mean the central bank
has satisfied its price stability mandate.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 3.1 basis points, on pace for its biggest
daily drop since June 24, to 4.579%, after falling to 4.525%.
OIL CLIMBS AS MIDDLE EAST HOSTILITIES RISE
Energy prices have come down in recent weeks on expectations
that a durable peace deal could be reached between the U.S. and
Iran. However, hostilities have intensified in recent days and
caused a reversal in crude prices.
U.S. crude rose 0.96% to $78.90 a barrel and Brent
advanced to $84.27 per barrel, up 1.16% on the day.
The two benchmarks touched four-week highs after the U.S.
reimposed a naval blockade of Iran and as renewed attacks
between Washington and Tehran exacerbated supply concerns but
pared gains after U.S. President Donald Trump backed off his
recent announcement to charge a 20% fee to guard the Strait of
Hormuz.
The yield on the 30-year bond dipped 1 basis
point to 5.088% after dropping to 5.051%.
FED RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS TUMBLE
Expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points from
the Fed at its July meeting tumbled to 16.6% from 41.7% in the
prior session, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. For the
central bank's September meeting, markets are pricing in a 59.8%
chance of a hike, down from 75.1% on Monday.
"This was a very encouraging inflation report that should
tamp down what seemed to be a growing chorus of folks looking
for them to hike at the July meeting," said Tom Porcelli, chief
economist at Wells Fargo, in a note.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 37.9 basis points.
Several Fed officials have in recent weeks flagged concerns
about inflation pressures while playing down any labor market
worries. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said
Tuesday's data was "surprisingly benign" and "encouraging" but
that one month's data is not enough to convince him inflation is
headed back to 2%.
Barclays U.S. economist Pooja Sriram said in a note that the
data "likely buy time for the FOMC to remain on hold and wait
for additional data," and maintained the firm's call for the Fed
to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Fed, tumbled 5.7 basis points to 4.206% after dropping to
4.147%, and was on track for its biggest daily decline since
June 11.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.282% after closing at 2.329% on Monday.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.256%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.3% a year for the next decade.