(Updated in New York afternoon time)
* Fed funds futures price 55% odds of September rate hike,
down from 68% on Monday
* Treasury says coupon and floating-rate note issuance to
stay steady for at least next several quarters
* ADP report shows private payrolls rise 44,000 in July,
about 25,000 below expectations
By Karen Brettell and Colin Barr
NEW YORK, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Treasury yields fell on
Wednesday as oil prices dipped on hopes of the Strait of Hormuz
reopening while traders also focused on economic data
culminating in Friday's July employment report.
U.S. President Donald Trump said there was an "all-day
negotiation" on Tuesday with Iran, characterizing the talks
positively while also threatening to hit Iran "really hard" if a
deal is not reached.
A proposed deal between Iran and Oman would give Iran control
over ships entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, a
senior Iranian source and two regional officials told Reuters on
Wednesday, in one of the biggest concessions yet to Iran.
Yields have been whipsawed along with oil prices by
alternating bouts of hope and disappointment as a deal to end
the Iran war remains unresolved.
"The pattern we're getting on the energy prices is kind of a
range-bound channel, where when it gets too high the U.S. has
this incentive to de-escalate, and when it gets too low Iran has
the incentive to escalate again," said Ryan Swift, chief U.S.
bond strategist at BCA Research.
However, "if we just stay in that range over the next six to
12 months, I think what's likely to happen is we're going to see
overall core inflation drift lower," Swift said.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in
step with Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, fell 0.66
basis points to 4.187%, the lowest since July 20.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell
1.23 basis points to 4.615%.
The yield curve between 2- and 10-year notes
steepened to 42.6 basis points.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 55% odds of an
interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September meeting,
down from 68% on Monday.
Concerns about an increase in longer-dated debt sales also eased
on Wednesday after the Treasury Department said it will hold its
coupon issuance and floating-rate note issuance steady for at
least the next several quarters.
"It's a positive for the rates market," said Gennadiy
Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities. "We're
not expecting auction size increases until the middle of 2027."
The Treasury also said that it continues to evaluate
potential future changes to its coupon and floating rate auction
sizes, a shift in language from its May refunding announcement
when it noted potential future increases to the debt sales.
Analysts said that may be a hint that it could reduce sales
of longer-dated debt to ease market pressures if long-end yields
rise too far.
Meanwhile, traders are waiting on Friday's highly
anticipated jobs report for July, which is expected to show that
employers added 80,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate is
expected to stay steady at 4.2%.
Wednesday's ADP private employment report showed an increase of
44,000 jobs in July, down from 95,000 positions added in June
and about 25,000 jobs shy of expectations. Wages rose 4.4% from
a year ago.
Other data showed that the U.S. services sector maintained a
strong pace of growth in July, but strong demand is colliding
with supply constraints, driving up input costs for businesses.