(Updates as of 1415 ET)
NEW YORK, Aug 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
slipped on Monday as the market marked time for inflation data
later in the week that should be pivotal for Federal Reserve
policymakers to confirm if an easing at their September meeting
is warranted.
Japanese markets were closed on Monday and many U.S.
participants are taking August vacations. So, after the
gyrations of a week ago, there was scant motivation to trade
ahead of July producer price data on Tuesday and, especially,
the release of the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday.
After the Treasury rally over the last week and half during
which a breakout of fear about a recession pushed benchmark
yields to 14-month lows, investors are now looking to lock in
yields in case of a hard landing, said Robert Tipp, chief
Investment Strategist at PGIM Fixed Income in Newark, New
Jersey.
Most have not been impressed by soft landings during the
2000s and are thinking: "'We need to get in here and lock in the
long rates even though 200 basis points of cuts are priced in
because the next thing you know is its going to be further than
that'," Tipp said.
With inflation trending toward the Fed's 2% target and
recent payrolls data indicating labor market tightness is
abating, the futures market is pricing in at least a 25 basis
point ease from the current 5.25%-5.50% fed funds rate at the
next FOMC meeting in September, four quarter point cuts by the
end of 2024 and almost as many next year.
With no August Federal Open Market Committee meeting, it
leaves market players to hope Fed chair Jerome Powell signals
intentions at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium next
week.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman softened her usually hawkish
tone ever so slightly on Saturday, noting some further "welcome"
progress on inflation in the last couple of months even as she
said inflation remains "uncomfortably above" the central bank's
target and subject to upside risks.
"The major catalyst this week is CPI on Wed. I would
describe it as 'checking the box' ahead of a probable September
rate cut," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at
Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.
"As long as the CPI report isn't tragic, I don't think there
is a lot of ultimate market import in it."
LeBas added that a few corporate bond deals on Monday were
keeping light pressure on interest rates.
Benchmark 10-year note yields were off 3.8 basis
points at 3.904%. They rose 15-basis points last week, the
largest one-week increase since April, after recovering from
last Monday's sharp sell-off to the lowest since June 2023.
Yields on two-year notes, which typically move in
step with interest rate expectations, fell 4.4 bp to 4.0089%
having also posted the biggest one-week increase since March
after a drop to the lowest level since May 2023.
The yield curve between two- and 10-year Treasury notes
steepened 1.2 basis points to minus 10.7 basis
points. It steepened to 1.50 basis points a week ago, briefly
turning positive for the first time since July 2022.
The breakeven inflation rate on five-year TIPS
was 1.9837%, suggesting investors see inflation
averaging under 2% over the next five years. The five-year TIPS
BEI, fell below 2% on Aug. 2 for the first time since early
2021. The 10-year BEI was 2.1153%.
TIPS 'real' yields fell to 1.77% and 1.797% on the five-
and 10-year, respectively.
TD Securities said in a note on Monday that real yields
look attractive as BEI are too low.
"We look for the Fed to start easing in September,
pushing both nominal and real rates lower. However, we expect
rates to drift higher in the near-term," the firm said on
Monday.