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Fed's Powell says December rate cut not guaranteed
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US Treasury yields rise amid lower rate-cut odds
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Government shutdown's effect on data may affect policy
By Tatiana Bautzer
NEW YORK, Oct 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
continued to rise on Thursday as markets saw lower odds of
another Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December and
wondered about the effects of a prolonged U.S. government
shutdown on monetary policy.
In a press conference on Wednesday after the U.S. central bank
announced a widely expected quarter-percentage-point rate cut,
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said another cut in December "is not a
foregone conclusion." Investors were caught off guard by the
remark.
Early on Thursday, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year
Treasury note rose 2.3 basis points (bps)
to 4.095%, after the largest rise since June on Wednesday.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 1.8 bps at
3.604%.
The availability of U.S. economic data amid the federal
government shutdown, now in its 30th day, is a key question to
investors.
"We may have another month in which labor market data will
not be collected if the government shutdown does not end soon,"
said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital
Management in Philadelphia. "We expect to have private data
available, but it's not clear how the Fed will consider it".
LeBas says the odds for a rate cut at the Fed's December 9-10
meeting are still quite high despite the lack of data. The
reduction of import tariffs on products coming from China to the
U.S. also may help reduce pressures, he added.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 47.3 basis points, little
changed from levels late on Wednesday.
The European Central Bank, meanwhile, kept interest rates
unchanged for the third meeting in a row on Thursday and offered
no hints about future moves as it enjoys a rare period of low
inflation and steady growth, even in the face of trade
turbulence.