*
Odds of 25-basis point rate cut this month rise to 87%
according
to FedWatch tool
*
Two year yields fall to five-week low after payrolls
report
(Updates to late morning trading)
By Tatiana Bautzer
NEW YORK, Dec 6 (Reuters) -
U.S. Treasuries yield fell to a six-week low after the
release of November payrolls data, as investors considered the
numbers as a green light to one more rate cut by the Federal
Reserve on its December 17-18 meeting.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 3.3 basis points to 4.149%. The front end of
the curve had a sharper drop, with the two-year
U.S. Treasury yield falling 5 basis points to 4.096%.
The yield on the 10-year note fell to 4.126% during the
session, its lowest since Oct. 21, while the 2-year yield
slumped to 4.077%, a level not seen since Nov. 1.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes steepened after to 5.1 points. Just before
the payrolls release, the yield curve inverted to negative 7.1
basis points, the lowest in three months.
Odds of a 25-basis points rate cut in the December meeting
jumped to 89% on Friday, up from 70% late on Thursday, according
to the CME's FedWatch Tool.
"It looks like there's no reason to worry about an
imminent recession and there's no reason for the Fed to take a
pause on cuts quite yet," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist
at Annex Wealth Management.
Nonfarm payrolls
increased by 227,000 jobs last month
after rising an upwardly revised 36,000 in October, the
Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report
on Friday. But it did not seem to signal a material shift in
labor market conditions.
"Data this morning was a Thanksgiving buffet with
payrolls spot on, revisions positive, but unemployment ticking
higher despite the participation rate falling. This print
doesn't kill the holiday spirit and the Fed remains on track to
deliver a cut in December.", said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi
sector investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan
Staney Wealth Management said although the economy is still
producing a healthy amount of job and income gains, "a further
increase in the unemployment rate tempers some of the shine in
the labor market and gives the Fed what it needs to cut rates in
December."
The 10-year yields fell 4.4 basis points this week and
the 2-year yields, 7.6 basis points.
Despite rising expectations the central bank will cut
rates at its upcoming meeting, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle
Bowman said
inflation risks to the economy remain real and labor market
data hard to interpret, and that requires caution with further
decisions on central bank rate cuts.
In addition, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President
Austan Goolsbee
remained noncommittal
on whether he would support an interest rate cut at the
central bank's meeting this month, but reiterated to his view
that interest rates will fall over the next 12 months.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.340% after closing at 2.369% on December 5.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.258%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.3% a year for the next decade.