(Updates to New York mid afternoon)
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK, Nov 22 (Reuters) -
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields slipped on Friday as
investors awaited fresh data that will offer further clues on
Federal Reserve policy and continued to assess how the policies
of the Donald Trump administration will affect the economy next
year.
The next major clues on the economy will be November's jobs
and inflation data due in early December. Jobless claims fell to
a seven-month low last week, which indicates that employment
remains strong.
However, "the trajectory of inflation seems to have a touch
of perkiness right now. It's probably just month-to-month noise,
but nonetheless I think that's the next potential risk for
higher yields," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at
Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.
Treasury yields have risen over the past two months as data
shows the U.S. economy remains more resilient than previously
expected.
Investors betting on President-elect Trump's victory, with
Republicans also taking control of Congress, added to the move.
Trump is expected to introduce policies that boost growth, while
analysts say immigration reform and tariffs are also likely to
increase inflation.
Traders are watching whom Trump will appoint as Treasury
Secretary. Trump floated the idea of appointing Kevin Warsh on
the understanding that he could later be Federal Reserve chair,
the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
Data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment
ticked up
for a fourth straight month in November, led by a big
upswing in sentiment among Republicans following Donald Trump's
victory.
The Fed is expected to slow its pace of cuts as it gets
closer to the so-called neutral rate, which is when the economy
is at full employment and inflation is stable.
The market is now pricing in a 53% probability the Fed will
cut rates by 25 basis points in December, and only a 11% chance
that it would be followed by another 25 basis point reduction in
January, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Yields on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes were last
down 2.4 basis points at 4.408%. They reached 4.505% last
Friday, the highest since May 31.
Two-year yields rose 2.4 basis points to 4.373%.
They hit 4.379% last Friday, the highest since July 31.
The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes
flattened by around 4 basis points to 4 basis
points.
Geopolitical tensions are also in focus as the Ukraine-
Russia war escalates and yields can be pulled lower on demand
for safe-haven U.S. government debt.
The Kremlin said on Friday that a strike on Ukraine using a
newly developed hypersonic ballistic missile was a message to
the West that Moscow will respond harshly to any "reckless"
Western actions in support of Ukraine.
Trading volumes next week are likely to decline heading into
Thursday's U.S. Thanksgiving holiday when markets will be
closed. The bond market will also have an early close at 2 p.m.
EST (1900 GMT) on Friday.
That may mean the U.S. Treasury Department will need to pay
higher yields for auctions of short- and intermediate-dated
debt.
The government will sell $69 billion in two-year notes on
Monday, $70 billion in five-year notes on Tuesday and $44
billion in seven-year notes on Wednesday, in addition to $28
billion in two-year floating rate notes on Tuesday.