(Updates to afternoon US trading)
* Plunge in oil prices boosts equities and risk appetite
* Fed rate-cut expectations revived by lower oil prices
* Ten-year notes auction seen as mediocre
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell
on Wednesday after a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and
Iran sent oil prices plummeting and resurrected the possibility
of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday agreed to a ceasefire
with Iran that was brokered by Pakistan, roughly two hours
before his deadline for the Iranians to reopen the critical
Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on the country's civilian
infrastructure.
Trump is dispatching his Iran negotiating team, led by Vice
President JD Vance, to Pakistan for talks, the White House told
reporters, adding that the first round of negotiations would
take place on Saturday.
However, Iran's Parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said
three key clauses of a 10-point proposal from Tehran were
violated before negotiations even began.
The reprieve could lead to the reactivation of the strategic
waterway that typically carries about 20% of the world's oil and
gas, sending oil prices below $100 per barrel and sparking a
sharp rally in equities.
U.S. crude tumbled 14.3% to $96.82 a barrel and Brent
plunged to $97.04 per barrel, down 11.2%.
"We're still in a period of volatility, perhaps we remain in
a period of heightened volatility, but it all comes down to that
duration of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and how long are
energy prices disrupted," said Bill Merz, head of capital
markets research at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group.
"If transportation through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes
in relatively short order, and that catalyzes the normalization
in energy prices in relatively short order, a cut in that
scenario later in the year is certainly a possibility."
TREASURY YIELDS POST BIGGEST DROP SINCE MARCH
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 5.4 basis points to 4.289%, while the yield
on the 30-year bond shed 3.6 basis points to
4.885%. Both were on track for their biggest daily drops since
March 30.
After a solid $58 billion auction of 3-year notes on
Tuesday, a $39 billion auction in 10-year notes was seen as
decent by analysts, with demand for the debt at 2.43 times the
notes on sale coming in slightly below average.
The week's auctions will be capped off on Thursday with $22
billion of 30-year bonds.
The tumble in crude prices bolstered expectations that the
Federal Reserve may now have some cushion to cut interest rates
this year. Expectations for a cut of at least 25 basis points at
the U.S. central bank's December 8-9 meeting stand at 25.3%,
according to CME's FedWatch Tool, up from 14.1% in the prior
session.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Fed, declined 4.5 basis points to 3.788%.
MARKETS REASSESS FED POLICY OUTLOOK
Several Fed officials said on Tuesday the sharp rise in oil
prices due to the war posed a risk to inflation, even as it
slows the economy and the labor market. On Wednesday, San
Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the U.S. economy is
fundamentally in a "good place" despite the sharply higher oil
prices.
Minutes from the Fed's March 17-18 meeting showed a growing
group of policymakers felt that interest rate hikes might be
needed to counter inflation that continued to exceed the central
bank's 2% target.
Markets had been pricing in roughly two U.S. rate cuts
before the war began on February 28.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 49.9 basis points.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.598% after closing at 2.644% on Tuesday.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.342%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.3% a year for the next decade.