(Updates to morning US trading)
* Oil prices plunge, boosting equities and risk appetite
* Drop in oil revives Fed rate-cut expectations
* CME Fedwatch shows increased odds
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
tumbled on Wednesday after a two-week ceasefire between the
United States and Iran ignited a relief rally across asset
classes as plummeting oil prices revived the possibility of
interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday agreed to a ceasefire
with Iran that was brokered by Pakistan, roughly two hours
before his deadline for the Iranians to reopen the critical
Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on its civilian infrastructure.
The reprieve could lead to the reactivation of the strategic
waterway that typically carries about 20% of the world's oil and
gas, and sent oil prices below $100 per barrel and sparked a
sharp rally in equities.
U.S. crude fell 17.66% to $93.05 a barrel and Brent
fell to $92.00 per barrel, down 15.8%, with both on
track for their biggest daily percentage declines since April
2020.
"Markets are breathing a huge sigh of relief that Trump and
Iran have found an off-ramp for now, and to the extent that this
could be the path forward that reduces the odds of a protracted
$150 or $200 oil price," said Robert Tipp, chief investment
strategist and head of global bonds at PGIM Fixed Income in
Newark, New Jersey.
"Therefore, you see some drop back in yields as that
probability goes down, an improvement in risk appetite with
stocks up and credit product outperforming," Tipp said.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 7.9 basis points to 4.264% while the yield on
the 30-year bond declined 6.1 basis points to
4.86%. Both were on track for their biggest daily drop since
March 30.
The tumble in crude prices helped lift expectations that the
Federal Reserve may now have some cushion to cut interest rates
this year. Expectations for a cut of at least 25 basis points at
the December meeting stand at 34.8%, according to CME's FedWatch
Tool, up from the 14.1% in the prior session.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the
Fed, slid 7.4 basis points to 3.759%.
Several Fed officials had said on Tuesday that the sharp rise in
oil prices due to the war had posed a risk to inflation, even as
it slows the economy and the labor market.
Markets had been pricing in roughly two U.S. rate cuts
before the war began on February 28.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a positive 50.3 basis points.
After a solid $58 billion auction of 3-year notes
on Tuesday, more supply will come to the market on Wednesday
with $39 billion in 10-year notes, while a $22 billion auction
of 30-year bonds is scheduled for Thursday.
Deutsche Bank said in a note that head of U.S. Treasury
trading Ray Johnson expects Wednesday's auction "to go well but
is less optimistic about duration after the auction given still
elevated uncertainty in the Middle East."
Fed officials scheduled to speak on Wednesday include Bank
of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Governor Christopher
Waller.
The minutes from the Fed's March meeting will also be released
later in the day, and could provide further details on the risks
policymakers and central bank staff see from the war.
March inflation data is scheduled to be released on Friday
in the form of the consumer price index, and will give an
indication of the impact on prices from the war.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.569% after closing at 2.644% on April 7.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.33%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3%
a year for the next decade.