(Adds data, analyst comment, byline, fed funds futures; updates
yields)
* US producer prices unchanged in July
* US rate futures now price in just 32% chance of a rate
hike
* US 2/10 yield curve hits steepest level since May
* Focus on US 30-year bond auction
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries rallied on
Thursday after data showed tame producer prices in July,
generally coming in line with market forecasts, paring back
expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates
at its policy meeting next month.
In morning trading, U.S. two-year yields, which are sensitive to
the outlook for interest rate moves, fell to their lowest since
mid-July and were last down 6.2 basis points (bps) to 4.136%
. Falling yields mean bond prices are higher.
The benchmark 10-year yield slid 6.3 bps to 4.629%,
while the U.S. 30-year bond yield was down 5 bps at 5.196%
.
Data showed that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was
unchanged last month, following a revised 0.1% drop in June.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rebounding
0.2%.
In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 4.7% after
advancing 5.5% in June. The forecast was for a 4.9% increase
year-on-year.
"It's a continuation of the kind of story that we've seen
playing out recently, which is prices do seem to be coming down
incrementally, or inflation is decelerating incrementally," said
Bill Merz, head of capital markets research and portfolio
construction at U.S. Bank Asset Management in Minneapolis.
"At the same time, the price pressures that do exist haven't
been crimping consumer spending, haven't been crimping or
limiting earnings growth that we're seeing across the global
capital markets."
In other parts of the Treasury market, the yield curve
steepened following the PPI data, with the gap between 2-year
and 10-year yields hitting 50.6 bps, the widest
spread since May 22. It was last at 48.3 bps, compared with 48.9
bps late Wednesday.
The curve showed a bull steepener, in which short-term interest
rates are dropping more sharply than longer-dated ones,
suggesting that the market is pricing out Fed tightening.
This scenario is backed by the U.S. rate futures market.
Following the PPI report, U.S. fed funds futures priced in on
Thursday just a 32% chance of a rate increase at the September
Fed meeting, down from 41% late on Wednesday.
Traders also expected 24 bps of tightening by the end of the
year after the data, compared with 27 bps on Wednesday.
Thursday's data also showed U.S. initial jobless weekly claims
increased modestly, suggesting that the labor market remains
stable despite July's surprise job losses.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a
seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended August 8,
according to the Labor Department. Economists polled by Reuters
had forecast 202,000 claims for the latest week.
The report added to expectations that the Fed will remain on
hold at the September meeting.
Also on Thursday, the Treasury is set to auction $25 billion in
new 30-year bonds. In the when-issued market, where the bond is
traded before it is actually sold, the new debt has a projected
yield of around 5.18%.
Vail Hartman, U.S. rates strategist at BMO Capital, wrote in a
research note that the sale would be the highest-yielding
30-year auction in several decades.
"On top of the substantial outright discount, valuations look
solid on the curve," he added.