(Adds fresh analyst comment, Trump's remarks from press
briefing, yield curve; updates yields)
* Middle East ceasefire plan proposes immediate truce
* Shifting comments by Trump, Iran add to market
uncertainty
* US services sector cools, but prices paid index surge
* US rate futures price out rate cuts in 2026
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries were
little changed on Monday as bond investors were caught between
optimism over reports of a ceasefire plan for the Middle East
and unease over President Donald Trump's threat to escalate
strikes on Iran if it does not reopen the vital Strait of
Hormuz.
Volume was generally thin, with European and some Asian
markets closed for the Easter holiday.
In afternoon trading, the benchmark 10-year yield, which falls
when Treasury prices rise, was down 1.1 basis points at 4.335%
US10YT=RR. Last week, the yield posted its largest weekly drop
since February 23.
On the shorter end of the curve, the two-year yield, which
reflects interest-rate expectations, was flat at 3.850%
. It had its biggest weekly fall last week since late
February.
Trump said on Monday that opening the Hormuz Strait was a big
priority and repeated his threats to rain "hell" on Iran if it
does not make a deal by 8 p.m. EDT Tuesday (midnight GMT) to
open the waterway through which about a fifth of global oil and
liquefied natural gas typically passes.
A Pakistani-brokered plan emerged from intense overnight
contacts, and it proposes an immediate ceasefire followed by
negotiations on a broader peace settlement to be concluded
within 15 to 20 days, a source aware of the proposals said on
Monday. Iran rejected the ceasefire, and said it wants an end to
the war.
"There's no specific direction for the bond market at this
point, and that's telling me that investors don't really know,"
said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in
Berwyn, Pennsylvania. "There's a lot of headline risk about
deadlines. And it's very difficult for investors to try to trade
on what could happen down the road because we have been down
this road before where we had these ultimatums."
DARING RESCUE
The ceasefire proposal followed a weekend rescue of a crew
member of a U.S. fighter jet who had been stranded in Iran since
Thursday after his aircraft was shot down. The pilot was rescued
in a separate operation carried out on Thursday.
U.S. crude futures were modestly higher on the day, up 0.7%
at $112.29 per barrel, while stocks climbed, with the
Nasdaq Composite up the most.
In other Treasury maturities, U.S. 30-year yields were last 1.7
bps lower at 4.889% US30YT=RR. The long bond yield last week had
its biggest weekly slide since late February.
The yield curve flattened on Monday, with the gap between
two-year and 10-year yields at 48.5 bps, compared
with 50.5 bps late on Thursday.
The curve showed a bull-flattening move as a result of
long-term yields falling faster than those on the short end. It
is a scenario that has taken place for three straight sessions,
and it suggests that investors are still pricing in policy
easing from the Fed due to mounting worries about growth
triggered by the Iran war.
Treasuries, meanwhile, showed little reaction to a report that
U.S. services sector growth slowed in March, while businesses'
input costs hit a near 3-1/2-year high, likely an indication
that the Iran war is boosting inflation pressures.
A stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls report for March last
Friday triggered a selloff in Treasuries, lifting their yields
higher. The data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve
will hold interest rates steady for longer even in the midst of
an easing cycle.
On Monday, U.S. rate futures priced out rate cuts this
year, compared with about 55 basis points of easing before the
Iran war began on February 28.