(Recasts, adds new comment, NEW YORK dateline, byline, bullets;
updates yields)
* Trump's unclear stance on Gulf war fuels inflation
fears
* Iran, Oman drafting protocol on Hormuz Strait traffic
* Fed rate-cut expectations fade on worrying inflation
data
* Focus shifts to US payrolls report for March
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Wayne Cole
NEW YORK/SYDNEY, April 2 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries
clawed back losses to trade higher on Thursday, as investors
weighed comments from President Donald Trump that seemed to dim
hopes of an early end to the war in the Middle East while news
that Iran could be laying the groundwork to reopen the vital
Strait of Hormuz tempered some risk aversion.
Trump's much anticipated address to the nation late on
Wednesday offered little clarity on when the U.S. conflict with
Iran might wind down and, crucially, waved off any
responsibility for reopening the strait. Roughly 20% of global
oil supplies - about 20 million barrels per day - passes through
the waterway. It's also a major route for the transport of
liquefied natural gas, especially from Qatar.
The speech drove oil prices sharply higher and heightened
fears that inflation would rule out easier monetary policy.
"Trump's comments drove the moves in all assets because
there's really no clear plan presented on the timeline on the
war and how the administration is going to wrap it up," said Jan
Nevruzi, U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities. "So inflation
has become a focus again."
Treasury yields, which rise when prices fall, started to drift
lower in the New York session, as buyers stepped in upon seeing
better entry levels.
The slide in yields was extended on a report that Iran is
drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic in the Strait
of Hormuz, which analysts said could pave the way for its
reopening.
In midday trading, benchmark 10-year yields
were down 2.8 basis points to 4.295%, falling after an earlier
rise triggered by Trump's speech. For the week, 10-year yields
have fallen about 14 bps, on pace for their largest drop since
the week of February 23.
MORE AGGRESSIVE ACTION
Trump on Wednesday vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran and
also suggested the war could escalate if leaders in Tehran did
not give in to U.S. terms during negotiations, with strikes on
Iranian energy and oil infrastructure possible.
That threat caused a jump in Brent and U.S. crude
futures, which were last up 5.2% at $106.54 per barrel
and 9% at $109.19, respectively. The surge in oil also saw the
market price out Federal Reserve interest rate cuts for
this year, compared to the 50 basis points of cuts expected
before the war began on February 28.
On the shorter end of the curve, the two-year yield
, which reflects interest rate expectations, was
slightly down at 3.794%.
The near closure of the strait has snarled global supply chains
for a host of products, including gasoline, natural gas, jet
fuel, fertilizer, chemicals, aluminum, pharmaceuticals and
cement.
The inflationary wave is already being felt, with average cost
of gasoline topping $4 a gallon in some U.S. states and the
wider effect still to be felt.
A closely watched survey of manufacturingon Wednesday showed its
measure of prices paid had shot up 19 points in just two months
to levels typically consistent with a 4% annual inflation rate.
The jump in inflation will make it harder for the Fed to
countenance a rate cut even as rising energy costs act as a tax
on consumers and a drag on domestic demand.
Much now depends on the release on Friday of the U.S. employment
report for March. The consensus forecast of economists polled by
Reuters is for a gain of 60,000 jobs last month. The country
shed 92,000 jobs in February.
"A rebound in job creation will likely see market pricing shift
materially in favor of a Fed hike, or two, as has been the case
elsewhere across the developed world," analysts at Westpac wrote
in a note.
In other pockets of the bond market, the yield curve
flattened, with the gap between two-year and 10-year yields
narrowing to 50.5 bps, compared to 51.2 bps late
on Wednesday.
The curve showed a bull-flattening scenario as a result of
long-term yields falling faster than those on the short end.
This situation is largely a reflection of the news about a
potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.