(Adds new comment, milestones on yields, US consumer sentiment
report)
* US retail sales unexpectedly fall; market impact wanes
* Hormuz Strait traffic grinds to a halt; oil rises
* US rate futures pare September rate hike odds
* US yield curve steepens, led by longer yields
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries fell on Friday
after an initial rally driven by weaker-than-expected retail
sales data faded, while persistent Middle East tensions kept
investors on edge with crude prices turning higher.
In afternoon trading, U.S. 2-year yields, which are sensitive to
the outlook for interest rate moves, rose 3.1 basis points (bps)
to 4.171%. On the week, however, they were down 3.1
bps, sliding for a third straight week.
Following the retail sales number earlier, the 2-year yield
dropped to its lowest since late May.
The benchmark 10-year yield climbed 4.9 bps to 4.690%
, while U.S. 30-year yields advanced 4.7 bps to
5.258%, the largest one-day rise since late July.
U.S. 30-year yields have risen in three of the last four weeks.
Rising yields mean Treasury debt prices are down.
Following the retail sales figures, Treasury yields, which
move inversely to prices, fell across the curve, before rising
again, suggesting investors remain more concerned about
inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict than the recent
run of weaker-than-expected economic figures.
"Looking at the 10-year, I guess it's basically done a round
trip since retail sales," said Zachary Griffiths, head of macro
and investment grade strategy at CreditSights. "I guess there's
still a lot of uncertainty with respect to the Iran war and what
that means for oil prices."
U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% last month after an unrevised 0.2%
gain in June, the first decline in nine months as the boost from
big tax refunds eased.
The unexpected decline in retail sales was also payback
after Amazon pulled forward its Prime Day event to June from
July, analysts said, as other retailers also offered competing
promotions. Declining gasoline prices also weighed on receipts
at service stations.
"Most of the weakness seems to be a timing issue, with
Amazon's Summer Prime Day moving forward a few weeks into June
this year," wrote Tom Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies
in New York, in a research note.
The Amazon factor caused nonstore retailer sales to drop 2.2%,
he added. "Looking past this drag, the numbers aren't quite as
bad as they seem."
RATE HIKE CHANCES EASE
Following the retail sales report, U.S. rate futures priced in
just a 29% chance of a rate hike at next month's policy meeting,
down from 34% late on Thursday, according to the CME's FedWatch.
U.S. consumer sentiment also soured in early August on worries
about the rising cost of living.
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped
to 51.0 this month from 55.2 in July, ending two straight months
of improvement. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the
index would be at 54.5.
Investors remain worried about the Strait of Hormuz. Transit
through the key waterway appeared to grind to a near standstill
on Friday after two more ships were attacked and the United
States said it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran
indefinitely.
Benchmark Brent futures and U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude futures were both up at about $88 and
$82 a barrel respectively.
The yield curve steepened following the retail sales data, with
the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields rising to 52.9 bps
, the widest spread since May. It was last at 51.5
bps, compared with 49.8 bps late Thursday.
The curve's shift is known as a bear steepener, where
long-term yields rise faster than shorter-dated ones, suggesting
a pickup in inflation expectations.
Ian Lyngen, managing director and head of U.S. rates strategy at
BMO, said the bond market is likely facing a period of
consolidation in the coming week now that major indicators have
been reported.