(Adds comment, yield curve, 30-year bond auction results,
updates yields)
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Fed policymakers divided on rate cuts amid inflation
concerns
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US government reopens after record 43-day shutdown
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US 30-year bond auction shows weak results
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US Treasury 2/10 yield curve in bear-steepening mode
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Nov 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries slid on
Thursday as investors scaled back expectations of an imminent
Federal Reserve interest rate cut amid lingering uncertainty
over inflation and stark divisions among central bank
policymakers on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy.
The U.S. government reopened after a record 43-day shutdown,
easing some of the uncertainty that had weighed on market
sentiment. The bill agreed to in Congress and signed by
President Donald Trump removes a key source of disruption,
though the bond market remained focused on broader fiscal and
monetary challenges ahead.
A soft U.S. 30-year bond auction also added to the overall
market selloff, although it was not a surprise for some
investors because previous sales of the debt have been
underwhelming for most of this year.
In afternoon trading, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was
up 3.6 basis points at 4.115%, while U.S. 30-year
bond yields rose 4.4 bps to 4.706%.
On the shorter end of the curve, the two-year yield, which
reflects interest rate expectations, advanced 2.7 bps to 3.593%
.
Bond prices move inversely to yields.
U.S. rate futures priced in on Thursday just a 50% chance of
another Fed rate cut next month, from about 62% late on
Wednesday, according to LSEG calculations, with about 80 bps of
cuts expected by the end of 2026.
"The Fed is clearly divided ... and the speakers made it
clear that there isn't a lot of data that you can latch on to.
"It's obviously right to be concerned about inflation because
it's sticky at 3%," said Bob Savage, head of markets macro
strategy at BNY in New York.
"We won't get a CPI (Consumer Price Index) report for
October, but we will get it for November. If you discount food
inflation, which is clearly there, or energy deflation, what you
really want to focus on is our services (inflation), which is
sticky, and how much have all the headlines about job losses
really translated into wages going up or down."
In the absence of data, bond investors have focused on
comments from Fed officials.
A growing number of Fed policymakers in recent days have
signaled hesitation on further easing, helping push financial
market-based odds of a reduction in borrowing costs in December
to near even. Fed officials who spoke recently cited worries
about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labor
market after two U.S. rate cuts this year.
PERSISTENT INFLATION, SOFT AUCTION
"Inflation has been persistent and we had some interesting
comments from (Treasury Secretary Scott) Bessent backing off on
some food tariffs. I think that's, quite frankly, an
acknowledgement that they have been wrong on tariffs," said
George Cipolloni, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset
Management in Philadelphia.
Bessent on Wednesday said Americans would see "substantial
announcements" in the coming days aimed at lowering the prices
of products such as coffee, bananas and other items not grown in
the U.S.
"We are definitely seeing weakness in the labor market:
that's clear, but we're just not getting enough relief on the
inflation side. So the Fed is kind of stuck. I would be
surprised if they didn't cut at least one more time by 25 basis
points," Cipolloni added.
The U.S. Treasury on Thursday sold $25 billion in 30-year
bonds in an auction that drew weak demand. The bonds priced at
4.694%, above market expectations at the bid deadline,
indicating investors demanded a premium to take them down.
The bid-to-cover ratio, another gauge of demand, was 2.29, less
than the 2.38 for the $22 billion reopened bonds last month but
higher than the 2.27% for the new issue in August.
Data also showed that primary dealers absorbed 14.5% of the
auction supply - almost double the previous 8.7% and slightly
above the 13.1% average - suggesting they had to step in to
support demand.
Dealers generally avoid holding large volumes of Treasuries
because doing so inflates their balance sheets, increases
leverage requirements, and forces them to allocate more capital.
In other parts of the bond market, the yield curve
steepened, as the spread between U.S. two-year and 10-year
yields rose to 52 bps, from 49.7 bps late
Wednesday.
The curve was in a bear-steepening mode, with long-term
yields rising faster than short-term rates. It reflected
investor views that inflation has picked up, at which point the
market is pricing in that the Fed could pause its easing cycle.