* Treasuries yields fall as oil prices retreat, equities
rebound
* Iran conflict's impact on bond market remains uncertain
* Fed rate cut expectations reduced amid inflation
concerns
* US one-year inflation swaps dip, but still elevated
(Adds new comment, U.S. data, updates yields)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries rebounded
on Monday, with risk appetite improving, as oil prices retreated
and stock markets recovered, although gains were tempered as
bond investors continued to assess how long the war in Iran may
last.
The benchmark 10-year yield, which falls when
prices rise, slid 6.3 basis points (bps) to 4.222% after surging
for five straight days. It was on track for its largest daily
decline since mid-February. U.S. two-year yields, which reflect
interest rate expectations, were also down, dipping 5.4 bps to
3.679%. It was set for its biggest one-day fall since late
February.
A sharp rally in oil prices - and the prospect of broader
global inflation pressures - drove the surge in yields across
the curve last week. U.S. crude futures have spiked by
more than 40% since the beginning of March, on pace for the
biggest monthly gain since May 2020.
Market players said risk appetite was slightly higher
compared to last week as there have been discussions about
ending the conflict, or some resolution on how to end it.
"The trend that we saw last week is just reversing a little
bit as the market is just trying to figure out, where do we go
from here, almost like a little bit of a recalibration," said
Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in
Berwyn, Pennsylvania.
U.S. officials responding to economic uncertainty over high
oil prices predicted on Sunday that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran
would end within weeks and that a drop in energy costs would
follow, despite Iran's assertion that it remains "stable and
strong" and ready to defend itself.
President Donald Trump also called for a coalition of
nations to help reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz and warned
that the NATO alliance faces a "very bad" future if its members
fail to come to Washington's aid.
"The bond market is not baking in the permanent impairment
of the Strait of Hormuz being shut off for a prolonged period or
a permanent hit to oil infrastructure," said Ali Hassan,
portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management in Santa
Fe, New Mexico.
He said, "There is no reason in my mind why the market is so
optimistic that there is an easy off-ramp to the conflict."
U.S. 30-year yields also slid, down 4.6 bps at 4.862%
US30YT=RR, on pace for the biggest daily pullback since February
12.
FLATTER YIELD CURVE
The yield curve was flatter on the day, with the gap between
two-year and 10-year yields narrowing to 54.20 bps US2US10=TWEB
from 55.8 bps late on Friday.
The curve showed a bull flattening pattern in which long
term interest rates are falling faster than short-dated ones.
The move largely reflected expectations that the Fed may not cut
interest rates as aggressively as previously thought due to the
inflationary impact of the recent surge in oil prices.
With inflation rearing its ugly head again, U.S. rate
futures have priced in just one Fed cut this year, or about 24
bps, from 55 bps before the war, according to LSEG estimates.
The Fed is set to meet this week, with investors keen to
hear the U.S. central bank's outlook on the economy and interest
rates in the midst of the ongoing conflict.
Inflation swaps, a gauge of the outlook for future consumer
prices, saw a spike to a nearly five-month peak of roughly 3%
in one-year maturities last week. This suggested
that investors believe that the consumer price index will
average about 3% over the next 12 months, higher than the 2.4%
year-on-year CPI reading for February.
On Monday, that inflation measure slipped to 2.9% with the
drop in oil prices.
Against the backdrop, U.S. economic data remained solid,
with Treasury yields earlier extending their rise.
U.S. factory production increased modestly in February as
manufacturing remained constrained by tariffs on imports and the
conflict in the Middle East could raise operating costs.
Manufacturing output rose 0.2% last month after an upwardly
revised 0.8% gain in January, the Federal Reserve said.
Other data on Monday showed sentiment among single-family
homebuilders nudging up in March. The National Association of
Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index increased one
point to 38 in March, remaining below the 50 break-even point
for 23 straight months.
The slight improvement in sentiment likely reflected lower
mortgage rates at the start of the year after Trump ordered
government-backed mortgage firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to
expand purchases of mortgage-backed securities.