*
U.S. housing starts fall, Philly Fed index declines
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U.S. yield curve reduces inversion
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U.S. rate futures price in one to two cuts this year
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U.S. $21 billion five-year TIPS auction shows strong
demand
(Adds comment, U.S. five-year TIPS auction results, graphics;
updates prices)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, June 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose
across the board on Thursday as investors continued to rebalance
positions after last week's sharp decline on further evidence
the world's largest economy is finally slowing down.
Investors are also looking ahead to next week's auction of
about $183 billion in U.S. two-, five- and seven-year Treasury
notes. They tend to sell Treasuries ahead of auctions to push up
the yield before buying them back at a lower price, a practice
called concession.
U.S. yields briefly came off their highs after Thursday's
generally soft economic reports with the contraction in housing
starts, a decline in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve business
conditions index, and an increase in continuing jobless claims
to 1.828 million in the latest week, the highest since January.
The initial weekly jobless claims, however, rose to 238,000,
reversing about a third of the surge in the prior week, which
had pushed up claims to a 10-month high.
"There's no doubt that the Fed is eager to lower interest
rates," said Mark Heppenstall, president and chief investment
officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management in Horsham,
Pennsylvania, noting that the Fed believes monetary policy is
restrictive enough.
"But economic data has been somewhat of a mixed picture
so far this year. A lot of the diverging data points have left
the Fed and some investors confused with regard as to what is
exactly the next story," he added.
In afternoon trading, the benchmark U.S. 10-year yield rose
3.5 basis points (bps) to 4.251%.
The U.S. 30-year yield gained 3.7 bps to 4.390%.
The two-year yield was up 2.5 bps at 4.728%.
A strong auction of U.S. five-year Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) added to overall bids in
Treasuries, pushing yields off their highs.
The auction stopped at a
high yield of 2.05%
, below expectations, suggesting that demand for inflation
protection was robust and investors did not seek a premium to
purchase the note.
The bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand, was 2.52,
down marginally from 2.58 at the previous auction, but in line
with the 2.51 average.
U.S. five-year TIPS yields have declined more than 20
basis points since hitting one-month peaks in late May.
Post-auction, the yield was slightly lower at 2.053%
.
In other parts of the bond market, the U.S. yield curve
became less inverted on Thursday. An inverted yield curve has
historically preceded past recessions. The curve between the
U.S. two- and 10-year yields was minus 47.9 bps,
compared with minus 49.3 bps late on Tuesday.
The curve is a "bear steepener," a scenario in which
long-term rates are rising more steeply than shorter-dated ones.
This often happens when the market thinks inflation could pick
up, likely delaying the start of the Fed's easing cycle.
These curves can change daily depending on market volume,
flow of funds and economic data.
Following Thursday's economic data, fed funds futures
slightly pared the chances of easing in September to 64%, from
about 67% late on Tuesday, according to LSEG's calculations. The
market is also pricing one to two rate cuts of 25 bps each this
year.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday it
would take a year or two to get inflation back to 2% as wage
growth might still be a bit too high, fueling concerns interest
rates could remain elevated for some time.