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GDP revised up to 3.0%, consumer spending also higher
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Weekly jobless claims slightly below estimates
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Market expectations for 50 bp September cut dip
(Updated at 2:26 p.m. ET/1826 GMT)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, Aug 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose
on Thursday, after data indicated the economy was on solid
enough footing to give the Federal Reserve room to be less
aggressive in cutting interest rates this year.
The Commerce Department said gross domestic product
increased at a 3.0% annualized rate last quarter, revised up
from the 2.8% rate reported last month, while consumer spending,
which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy,
increased at an upwardly revised 2.9% rate versus the previously
reported 2.3% pace.
A separate report showed weekly initial jobless claims
slipped to 231,000 last week, slightly below the 232,000
estimate of economists polled by Reuters and consistent with
levels that indicate a steadily cooling labor market.
"The market marginally decreased the pricing for 2024 rate
cuts on the better-than-expected revisions to GDP, which were
largely led by a stronger consumer and the consumer strength is
really what markets are focused on, rather than inflation," said
Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities
in New York.
"Going forward, markets are going to be much more focused on
employment and the state of the consumer for direction to gauge
the magnitude of possible rate cuts."
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
rose 2 basis points to 3.862%, its fourth straight
daily climb, and on track for its biggest one-day gain in a
week.
Markets are fully pricing in a rate cut of at least 25 basis
points (bps) at the Fed's September meeting, although
expectations for a cut of 50 bps fell to 34.5% after the data,
down from 38% in the prior session, according to CME's FedWatch
Tool.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a negative 2.9 basis points after narrowing
to a negative 1.4 bps, its highest since August 8.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations,
climbed 2.9 basis points to 3.896%.
The yield on the 30-year bond advanced 1.5
basis points to 4.146%.
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President
Raphael Bostic said that with inflation down farther and the
unemployment rate up more than he anticipated, it may be "time
to move" on rate cuts, but he wants to be sure before pulling
that trigger. Bostic is also expected to speak later on
Thursday.
Yields briefly moved higher after a soft auction of $44
billion in seven-year notes, the final auction of the
week, with a below average demand of 2.5 times the notes on
sale. The yield was last up 2.6 basis points to 3.763%.
Data on Friday in the form of the July personal
consumption expenditures (PCE) will indicate whether inflation
continues to cool.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.056% after closing at 2.046% on August 28.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.159%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about
2.2% a year for the next decade.