(Updates as of 15:12 EDT)
By Matt Tracy
March 21 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on
Thursday after the release of strong economic data, including a
report showing a drop in new claims for unemployment benefits,
added to questions about the timing of expected interest rate
cuts this year.
Yields on benchmark 10-year notes ticked up
slightly to 4.272%. They closed at 4.271% on Wednesday after the
Federal Reserve issued a policy statement and new economic
projections affirming that it was still on track to cut interest
rates three times this year.
Two-year yields ticked up to 4.636%, from their
close of 4.604% on Wednesday.
The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and
10-year notes narrowed by 1.5 basis points to
minus 36 basis points.
The release of recent data, including reports showing
inflation is not falling as fast as had been hoped by Fed
policymakers, has raised questions among traders about the
widely expected June start to the U.S. central bank's rate cuts.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that despite
recent inflation data coming in hotter than expected, the
numbers "haven't really changed the overall story, which is that
of inflation moving down gradually, on a somewhat bumpy road."
A string of economic data on Thursday helped boost yields.
The U.S. S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers'
index improved in early March to 52.5 from 52.2 in February,
while the U.S. Labor Department reported the number of people
filing
new claims
for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week,
suggesting job growth remained strong in March. The National
Association of Realtors also reported that U.S.
existing home sales
increased to a one-year high in February.
"Manufacturing has been a weak sector compared to
services over this time, so a little bit of strength there
certainly didn't help," said Ellis Phifer, managing director of
fixed income research at Raymond James.
"The Fed has also been more tuned back towards the job
market and its strength," he said. Phifer added that "if nothing
else, it's the market digesting the flatter dot-plot curve that
the Fed gave us yesterday, showing the three cuts this year but
maybe taking a little bit off next year."
Traders in federal funds futures have increased their bets
that the U.S. central bank will cut rates by June to 73%,
according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
While further stronger-than-expected inflation prints could
change the Fed's course, Powell's dovish comments assuaged some
traders' concerns about the rate-cut plan.
"The timing and pace is what's a little frustrating, but as
long as it's moving in the right direction, the Fed should
remain on track for cuts this year," said Jack McIntyre,
portfolio manager for global fixed income at Brandywine Global.
"I feel like inflation has had a couple of little bumps and
that's to be expected. But I think, as we have a conversation
six months from now, inflation is still going to be well
behaved," he added.
The U.S. Treasury Department's $16 billion auction of
10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) on
Thursday resulted in a high yield of 1.932% and a bid-to-cover
ratio of 2.35. This compares to a high yield of 1.810% and
bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62 for the previous auction in January.
The Treasury also auctioned $85 billion in four-week bills
and $85 billion in eight-week bills.